Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

Athabasca STILL way overvalued......

[mrmomo]

And with WTI oil floating around ~$65, give or take a few bucks, ATH STILL has lots of downside risk if energy prices remain here for any length of time. Not quite sure WHY Athabasca is still trading this high, there's really no publicly known reason for it to be here, so unless there's some unknown develpoment behind the scenes, this should drop down to more reasonable levels very soon.

In the Canadian O&G space, the breaking point for most producers (90%) is about $60 WTI, anything below that level will spell trouble for many of them, ATH inlcuded. With evaporating margins & the disappearanc of lucrative hedges, most will be in deep trouble with their finances and having issues with liquidity. As i wirte this, Athabasca is STILL trading a little over $60k per flowing barrel, which is way too high for current energy pricing. A more reasonable level for them would be ~$50k cdn, and that would translate into a share price of around $2.50. But imho and in this current environment, even that may be too much, and would expect this to fall to around $2 once the institutional investors fully realize what the actual circumstances & realities are.

For those of you who have issues or take offense with my comments, and think i'm either crazy or bashing for no reason, just think about this before you judge. I DONT own any shares and therefore i'm NOT a s/h, so i have no bias either way and i also don't plan on being a s/h at any point in the future. I'm a pragmatic, logical investor who basis his opinions on FACTS & FIGURES and the realities of the current environment. So there's really no fluff, bashing or pumping in my views and opinions. And remember, i did call it right on point, not too long ago when this was trading way too high at ~$3.25 cdn for no valid reason, and "advised" that investors should unload some of their position at those levels (if not all!!!) and take profits. For that listened, you made the right call and are happy campers, for those that didnt.....well ...... i assume you're not that happy right now.

So the point here is the following, don't brush off what i'm implying here too easily. I've been on target so far and i will go one step further and state that IF there's no valid reason "behind the scenes" for ATH to be trading at these levels, then i FULLY expect to continue to be right with my assessment & predictions on the company. Those above comments included. For those of you who vehemently disagree and FULLY expect ATH to revisit its previous highs very soon without a valid reason, then i say the following. There's only ONE way that will happen, short of what i 've stated in the past, and that's IF WTI pricing goes back to $~100.

So, taking into consideration that Europe & America DON'T WANT for oil & gas going back to those levels for a multitude of crucial reasons i've made clear on here before, and that they've gone to great lengths to manipulate the energy markets to make sure that didn't happen. So the only way WTI revisits $100 is with Mr. Putin escalating the war in Ukraine with something like the use of tactical nukes or completely cutting off oil & gas supplies to everyone. As i don't believe the latter is possible as it would result in the complete bankruptcy/insolvency of Russia, you're left with only the former and a massive escalation of the conflict Ukraine. Which is quite possible and strong reality, and only depends in which form it will take.

But i'm guesiing that if you guys had i choice of either having your ATH shares back over $3 WITH the use of nukes OR for them staying put where they are or even having them going much much lower to about $2, 'im assuming most of you, which is 99.99999% of you guys, would choose the latter........i hope....


GLTA

[Oilinplay]

Thanks junior. Now go back to your meaningless job and get more bitter watching us make some money. Broke loser comments are useless. 

[Deutz9170]

Have you considered applying for being a guest on BNN?  Maybe hook yourself up with a pair of Groucho Marx glasses, to wear on the show. So  you can keep your alias. I'm just a a dumb retail guy, who bought shares at 18 cents. So I'll never figure out its you!!!

[Maxmoe]

Momo must be that newsletter writer that pawned himself off as an expert on oil and gas stocks a few years ago. Through no fault of his own every single oil stock crashed and the angry villagers gathered with pitchforks and torches to tar and feather somebody, anybody , everybody for the fact all their oil stocks were suddenly down 70,80,90%. Even king Eric was being held in the tower awaiting the

[Burgersandfries]

Momo is a wordsmith and chooses to put it on display on the BB's so he can get a reaction. Every stock he criticizes has out performed his beloved Kelt (a decent company for sure) if you compare highs and lows for the last year. I'm impressed with his ability to say so much meaning so little an impressive skill to make up for his stock picking skills.

[masfortuna]

Are you talking about Gerry Shachter?

[Oilinplay]

Shoe shiner Schacter. Another winner that's watched folks make fortunes from the sidelines. With so many broke experts giving advice on this forum it's difficult to pick just one take seriously, what with their hundreds of dollars worth of stock analysis and trading accounts with hundreds of dollars invested. 

[cahclick]

  mrmomo, that's a lot of words for someone that has no vested interest in ATH.  Mr Market seems to be disagreeing with your wisdom today    

[Dibah420]

"even that may be too much, and would expect this to fall to around $2 once the institutional investors fully realize what the actual circumstances & realities are." Any claim to such keener acuity  has to be taken with a grain of salt. Those risk assessors doing due diligence at institutions  would have to be taking a collective snooze for you to be ahead.