Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

Positioned for record cash flow -- room to run

[MLEWICKIMBA]

1. 67.28 usd wcs all weekend 
2. 90.04 cad conversion 
3. Minimal hedging -- non revenue restrictive 
4. Q3 2023 higher bpd -- let those rigs pump baby
5. 160m cad n flow in Q3 2023

*** Result -- Record Q3 cash flow and free cash flow.

This stock has room to run ‍....

Enjoy the holiday weekend -- Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday at 67.28 usd wcs.

ML

[Deutz9170]

And soon, no USD debt, to service.   They won't have to convert their CDN to pay the debt back.

[MLEWICKIMBA]

Yeah -- do you think they will redeem debtvin full.

[cahclick]

  I think if they pay the debt off in full, the market would acknowledge that with a significant bump in SP. It would be a substantial bragging point for ATH that would attract more eyes and $ to ATH jmo  

[Deutz9170]

I don't believe they have a choice to pay off the debt or not.  Usually the debt holders are in the postion to be paid first, if any assets are spun off. Or else the debt holder would be face down and derriere up, type thing.  This might be different. But creditor's nowadays have all the exits sealed off.

[MLEWICKIMBA]

There are no restrictions on cash/debt now.  On the sale of a production asset it might be different. My expectation is that debt will be paid down by $62.00M to $100M in October before Q3 earnings release on November 1, 2023..  This will send the shares flying. The debt has to be redeemed by October 2026 or replaced with a new issue.   The road to 5 bucks seems clear now

[Jimmy1page]

You're giving me chills lolol

[matt2018]

The 2026 notes balance is $161.8M US as per the Q2 report. The notes can be redeemed at par untill Nov 2024 and then jumps to 105% from Nov 2024 to Nov 2025. Notes then go back to par redemption the last year from Nov 2025 to Nov 2026. My guess is they pause on redeeming the notes during the 105% premium period and pay the balance off in full during that last year before they come due. But at 9.75

[matt2018]

Just checked the Q2 financials, the notes balance is $214.3M CDN. If they are closing the asset sale in Q3, then the funds from that transaction and the $132.5M in cash they are sitting on are more than enough to pay the notes in full in Q3 and don't have to deal with the 105% repayment clause period.

[Deutz9170]

Good stuff Matt. I thought thr debt would of been in USD

[cahclick]

  Below is cut & paste from recent NR that shows estimated cash balance after paying the debt . . .   "The Transaction further strengthens the Company’s balance sheet with an enviable pro forma Net Cash position of ~$90 million (5)   . . . and note 5 reads . . .   (5) Net Debt/(Cash) is defined as the face value of term debt, plus accounts payable and

[filefish]

You would think that logically ATH would pay off the term loan in full. However my bet is that they don't. They have had a history since the beginning of sitting on  excess cash. Never got a satisfactory answer why. I do think that using the sale proceeds for share buybacks is the best use now, but as a long term holder, I sure would feel vindicated if ATH reported ZERO debt on its year

[Maxmoe]

I've noticed the same tendency and have attempted to get an explanation from broen and Taylor. I was so riled up a couple years ago I told broen I'd come out of retirement and fix his balance sheet within months if Matt is the roadblock. LOL. They did both confirm that they'd love nothing more than to call a meeting with their bankers at ATH headquarters and tell them YOU'RE FIRED.

[smartmoni]

I totally agree ....... $5 by yrs end is now in play baby!!!

[MLEWICKIMBA]

5 bucks is possible -- agree with you. They have a few tricks up their sleeves we can bet on it.