Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

Trump and Danielle Smith

[Maxmoe]

What a wasted trip for her to visit him unless she was going to Florida anyway for a winter reprieve and a round of golf with kevin o'Leary. Kevin wasn't there for golf, or Canada, or tariffs. He wants to steal TikTok from the Chinese and figure out how to make it worth trump's while. What was she expecting him to say when she showed up groveling and begging for no tariffs. How to get zero respect and embolden him. How can the premier of Alberta make Trudeau look tough ? Even if the feds have a weak position, this just makes it worse. Did he actually laugh in her face or did he wait for her to leave the room. Looks like we will have to live with tariffs until he figures out it hurts them more than us. One of the many advantages Ath has is they can reduce production without damaging a reservoir like a typical oil field. Now Danielle needs to go home and help build pipelines. To bc.  Or even Hudson Bay.

[matt2018]

It was a wasted trip and these are investors running scared. And theyll run scared for another week. Doubt there will be tarrifs on energy that they require for daily needs. It will raise prices at the pumps immediately. Nobody that dumb, not even DJT.

[Jimmy1page]

The Trip was not a waste and Trump isn't stupid. The President has a degree in economics from the Wharton School of business and prior to covid had one of the strongest economies in US history.

[matt2018]

So what is Danielle Smith going to tell him that he already does not know? He knows everything right? I'll tell you what he does not know. How a negotiated, signed Free Trade Deal works. You honor the deal till it expires and then negotiate a new one. You must not have negotiated a good one the first time around, if you keep claiming you're getting "ripped off".

[Jimmy1page]

Well he probably doesn't know that the resource is owned by the people of Alberta or that you can't negotiate a deal for more of our oil without Premier Smith at the table. That's probably the point she wanted to get across. 

[matt2018]

doesn't care jimmy.  You heard him at his press conference last week at maralago. "We dont need anything they have".

[filefish]

Can anyone explain how a 25% tariff on Canadian oil would impact ATH's production and financials , either directly or indirectly. Who actually pays the tariff? What about production that is not directly shipped to the USA, how is that impacted.? 

[Jimmy1page]

Many US refineries are built for heavy oil. The US doesn't have heavy oil. Sooo his choices are Russia, venuezula or us. He's not going to hit our oil with tariffs because oil prices will rise as will the price of fuel.

[matt2018]

The buyer (importer) pays the tariffs, they are like a tax paid for by the company that imports the goods. Then they pass these exta costs to the end user (consumer). As the seller (exporter), you may need to drop your cost as it will now be more expensive for the buyer to keep buying your product like previously. If you are not able to drop your selling price, the extra 25% for example, may price

[filefish]

Thanks for that explanation Matt. So in the case of ATH, what portion of their production is actually sold directly into the US., subject to tariff? 

[matt2018]

If this were to go through, quite sure energy companies would put out a release on their exposure to US market. As a whole, Cdn oil refinery capacity is appr 1.7M bbl/day.   Combined oil production is appr 5.7M bbl/day. Difference is shipped into the US (97% of it). No other significant cutomers to speak of.

[newtonboy]

There remains an old proverb "Talk is cheap, whiskey costs money" that  when DJT figures out, will decide what tarrifs he will impose.  Americans feel they are presently paying too much for gas without any tarriffs which leads me to believe they will not tolerate any increase. Combine this with what is going down in the great state of California, the HUGE demand and supply of

[Jimmy1page]

Ok, when it doesn't happen I hope you'll admit you were wrong.

[matt2018]

I never said anything was going to happen, Jimmy. I was merely suggesting why Cdn energy producers were down heavy today and American energy producers were up nicely on a day when oil price was up sharply. Many investors in cdn energy companies feel energy will be included in his tariffs, based on what he has been saying lately. He's not not talking about border security anymore. Never had

[Cariboodave]

I think you are missing that Federsl Government is reason for pipelines not being built in Canada or Luke the one we (taxpayer) own it takes forever to build and  overrun in cost is 3x what private could have done in way less time!  We have not even completed one Natural Gas Export terminal in Kitimat while US 8? Now in operation