Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Artis Real Estate Investment Pref Shs Series E T.AX.PR.E

Alternate Symbol(s): ARESF | T.AX.UN | T.AX.PR.I

Artis Real Estate Investment Trust is an unincorporated closed-end REIT based in Canada. Artis REIT's portfolio comprises properties located in Central and Western Canada and select markets throughout the United States, including regions such as Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, Saskatchewan, Arizona, Minnesota, Colorado, New York, and Wisconsin. The properties are divided into... see more

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Artis Real Estate Investment Pref Shs Series E > Birth/death

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Post by Torontojay on Jun 07, 2024 12:03pm

Birth/death

The non farms payroll uses the birth/death model to come up with the bogus jobs number data. It is estimated that the "fudge" factor added about 1 million fake jobs in 2023.

The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages provides a more comprehensive review of the jobs data as the sample size is much larger than the NFP. There is a significant divergence between the NFP data and the more accurate QCEW data.

The birth/death model is flawed because it uses lagging indicators and extrapolates them in the present. The general consensus is that it doesn't capture turning points in the economy until further revisions are made down the road.

Don't trust any data source that uses the birth/death model in its computation. This is one of the reasons why the NBER can take 1 year to date a recession because of revisions that are consistently made throughout the year.

Fellow Economist Daniele DiMartino believes the recession started in October of 2023 and that further revisions made will make it clear that the recession has already started.

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Comment by Torontojay on Aug 21, 2024 12:35pm

The non farms payroll uses the birth/death model to come up with the bogus jobs number data. It is estimated that the "fudge" factor added about 1 million fake jobs in 2023. The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages provides a more comprehensive review of the jobs data as the sample size is much larger than the NFP. There is a significant divergence between the NFP data and ...more

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Comment by Torontojay on Aug 21, 2024 2:11pm

That's classic Bidenomics. Add almost 1 million fake jobs and have Wallstreet celebrate the news only to revise them lower when nobody is paying attention.

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Comment by DZtrader on Aug 21, 2024 2:27pm

OMG, you can lie just like your hero Trump. Where did you pull that tid bit out of? Too funny. As much as I hate to admit, labor market tends to be stronger during Democrats reign moreso than Republican . At least know what you are talking about T.J. before you make an even bigger fool out of yourself than you already have. Lieing never gets you anywhere good there econoboy, next!

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