Artis Real Estate Investment Pref Shs Series E T.AX.PR.E

Us hiring

[Torontojay]

Is down 5.2% y/y and below pre pandemic level by ~ 6%. This is not consistent with a strong labour market but rather a weak one. Total quits are also trending below pre-pandemic levels which tells me that people are trying to secure their jobs and that jobs are no longer plentiful as they once were. Finally, the job openings to unemployed ratio has come down significantly which tells me that wage inflation will begin to moderate. As of May, there are 6.649 millions Americans that are unemployed and 8.059 million job postings. I personally prefer to look at total hires versus job postings as I think most postings never get filled. 

The US has not been able to bring down inflation because the economy has not entered a recession yet. Although the unemployment rate is begininning to rise, the US would need to see more unemployed and total job positions/hires to decline. This will bring down wages and overall inflation. I do see a finish line in the fight on inflation but until the money supply comes into better balance (currently $1 trillion above trend) then inflation is going to take some time to get under control.

[garyreins]

TJ with all your brilliant analysis when do you think inflation will be close to range and therefore yesterday's news

[DZtrader]

I'm not TJ (thank God), but to answer your question, ex shelter and insurance we are for all intents and purposes there. Shelter is lagging (coming in) and vehicle prices both new and used are also coming in, which in turn will reduce premiums further. That tells me we might be closer than many think. But what do I know?!

[garyreins]

Then why only one cut.  And isn't services still 3.5%

[Torontojay]

Thats a very weak answer. You have no idea what you are talking about. They said the same thing last year regarding shelter and that it would come down. Boy were they proven wrong. Rents never did come down and there is a strong argument to be made why that's not been the case. I will not get into the reason why because you wouldn't get it anyway. I don't want to educate you anymore. I