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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Artis Real Estate Investment Pref Shs Series E T.AX.PR.E

Alternate Symbol(s):  ARESF | T.AX.UN | T.AX.PR.I

Artis Real Estate Investment Trust is a diversified Canadian real estate investment trust with a portfolio of industrial, office and retail properties in Canada and the United States. The Company’s portfolio comprises more than 100 commercial properties. Its properties include Bower Centre; Maynard Technology Centre; McCall Lake Industrial; Pepco Building; Alex Building; 1093 Sherwin Road; 1681... see more

TSX:AX.PR.E - Post Discussion

Artis Real Estate Investment Pref Shs Series E > 2 year treasury/Sahm and Yield curve
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Post by Torontojay on Sep 10, 2024 5:25pm

2 year treasury/Sahm and Yield curve

Is at the same level as November of 2007 where it was just above 5% in June of that year. Fast forward to today and the 2 year treasury is at 3.607% which is down from ~ 5% in April of this year. The Fed funds is currently at 5.33% which compares to 5.25% in 2007. 

The Sahm number is at 0.57 which is higher than April of 2008 but lower than May. Keep in mind the US was already in recession during the GFC when the Sahm number was triggered. 

The yield curve did inverted in April and June of 2007 and today it has already disinverted in September. 

Putting all of this together, I would say that when the Nber backdates this recession sometime next year, they will likely say it has already started by late summer/fall of 2024.

Comment by garyreins on Sep 10, 2024 6:09pm
This sounds about right.  Short oil and long bonds seems like the market knows what's coming.  Fortunately reits are responding very favorably 
Comment by Torontojay on Sep 10, 2024 6:22pm
Yup because the stock market hasn't crashed yet like it did in fall of 2008.  The Canadian stock market is actually pretty cheap in comparison to the US. 
Comment by Torontojay on Sep 10, 2024 6:20pm
Should read*  The yield curve disinverted in April and June of 2007 and today it has already disinverted in September. 
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