When the Fed cut by 50 bps on September 18th 2007, initial
claims and unemployment remained low until around the start of 2008. Ben Bernanke said we will have a soft landing in the spring of 2008 because that's how the narrative was being played out.
Unemployment rate was 4.7 % (Sept 2007) and had risen by only 20 bps from a year earlier. Moreover, initial claims stayed relatively low up until the last month and began to trend much higher by early 2008. One last point is that gdp was positive in Q1 2008 and then was revised lower by years end.
There is no reason why the same situation couldn't play out in 2025 where we finally see unemployment and initial claims move much higher. Also, the QCEW will finally catch up to the market and reveal the truth about the economy. Pay attention to the beige book which contains a wealth of information.
ps: if you've made some money in stocks recently, take some profits off the table and be patient. Remember, it's not a race to the finish line. Just ask Warren Buffet in 1998.