TSX:AX.PR.E - Post Discussion
Post by
Torontojay on Jan 10, 2025 7:49am
S&P and the normalization of the yield curve
The last 8 times the yield curve has normalized, the stock market has already reached its peak for the cycle 5 out of the last 8 times. That is, when the 10 year surpasses the yield on a 3 month t-bill, the market usually tops out prior to this occurrence. The yield curve normalized in December of 2024 and the S&P has reached its peak (so far) on December 6th. Keep in mind that in past recessions, such as the GFC, the stock market peaked just after the yield curve normalized but not long after. The yield curve usually normalizes after the Federal Reserve makes its first interest rate cut. As always, make sure your portfolio is well diversified so that if we enter another bear market you are prepared for it.
Have a nice day.
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