Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

DOO.TO

[HopefulJuan]

$7.8 billion market cap.vs $2.1 for BBD.

Both companies selling toys. Planes are nicer toys.

[johnney]

Figure this out! BRP has 87,920K shares outstanding, the bomber has 2.4B shares out, and a huge Debt! BRP has made money, but not the case for  Bombardier, and BRP has not been downgraded by three agents firms!

[Willy2k]

Johnney your back and your enthusiasm towards the bomber still not so good !!!!!!!!!!. Less then 2 weeks to go

[johnney]

It's not enthusiiasm, but facts, do you know how to count, cause some really do!

[HopefulJuan]

Apply the BRP cap to BBD with the increased share count and the price is still $3.25 / share. BBD (BA) revenue > BRP revenue imo.  The debt is being managed and is last years story. Being downgraded by dirt bags should be considered an honour given the valuations they are ignoring. Don't bite the hand that feeds you for them.

[Jim99999]

The debt is very much this year's story. They will still have $6-7B LTD after Alstom funds are applied. BBD absolutely must find less costly financing. That BBD can arrange cheaper financing is not a foregone conclusion. They must be able to demonstrate a lower risk profile. This is difficult to do when your product is not selling. Jim

[PabloLafortune]

Anybody who says they will have $6-7B of LTD post Alstom is not credible.

[Jim99999]

I am not talking about net debt. I am talking about the debt they pay interest on. BBD currently has about $10B in LTD. They will net somewhere around $4B. If they apply all of it to LTD, they will have about $6B LTD remaining. I do not believe they will be able to apply all of it to the debt, that is why I project LTD to be $6-7B. I am happy to be corrected, though. Jim

[raphaelle2]

Jim, You dont need to be corrected! You need to be educated. I suggest you listen carefully to the last Q3 report and the exchanges with the analysts available on BBD investors page. Only a short half hour which will do miracle for you and help clean up this board of useless and pathetic exchanges...GLTA..

[Jim99999]

Well Raphaelle2, I took your advice and listened to the call. Unfortunately, I didn't hear anything to make me think my projection is wildly inaccurate. In fact, at about the 31 minute mark,  John Di Bert says the exact same numbers that I said, namely $10B-$4B=$6B LTD, $4.5B net debt. Jim

[raphaelle2]

Listen to it again Jim... As I keep saying here the debt by itself is not the new BA problem. Its the FCF and the EBITDA which need to be adressed. This will be done by 1) limiting the capital ( cash burn) to the depreciation level during the next 3 years and getting rid of all the old BBD corporate expenses in line with the lean BA. This will boost the margins on both servicing and OEM activities

[Jim99999]

Thank you for the response, raphaelle2, I agree with much of what you say.  The point I was originally trying to make is that the Alstom deal does not eliminate concerns about the debt. There are numerous posters who try to paint the debt situation as resolved, and believe BBD will have no trouble refinancing at 3-4%. This is simply unrealistic. Spirit Aerosystems raised $500M in senior

[raphaelle2]

" Dont bother me with facts...my mind is made up" I am pessimistic and I like it !

[Howlingpack]

I am curious to know what you use as the net debt amount and also what average interest rate on said debt to determine $300-$400 in annual interest payments?  Using nebt debt of $4.5B from DiBert's comments, I determine a rate of roughly 7% to 9% on annual interest payments of $300-$400M? My math may be wrong as I haven't had my coffee yet. 

[Jim99999]

Currently BBD is paying about 7.5% on close to $10B LTD. After the Alstom deal, I project BBD will have at least $6B LTD (not net debt) and that they may be able to bring their average cost down to 5-6% over time. Others are more optimistic, both w/r/t amount of debt and cost of said debt. Jim

[Shamhorish]

Jim99999, what do you mean by " to bring their average cost down to 5-6%" do you mean to bring average inerest rate to 5-6%???? while, a 5 or 6% is (IMO) is better than7.5%, i think it is still high interest rate i think bbd need to bring average inerest rate to 4% or less if possible

[Jim99999]

Yes, that is what I mean. They may be able to get lower rates if they can offer some form of collateral, as with the $1B credit facility. Jim

[HopefulJuan]

CNR has $14.2 B of debt with a $100 B market cap. Revenues similar to the previous BBD revenues prior to selling BT.  BBD is $2 B. Something out of whack.

[PabloLafortune]

Lets be honest: there are a few differences. First, BRP has a good track record. BBD doesn't. Second, BRP has a little over C$1.2B debt. The equivalent for BBD would be USD$1.2B. Post BT and Q4, BBD will still have USD$3-4B of debt.  This indirectly impacts Enterprise Valuation.  3rd, BRP doesn't have much float as the way it is istructured, a lot shares controlled in a private

[johnney]

PabloLafortune right, lets be honest, you say that a reverse split is not necessary bad, depends what price you paid, and what price they will do this, if happens!

[HopefulJuan]

I'm good with a reverse split to lower the float if that's how they go. What the market needs is proof and that will only come with the numbers when they are released. To say $3 - 4 B debt is a huge range of 25%. 6 -7 slightly less. What happens if the debt is 2.8 B and the Q4 revenue is 2.5 B? Either way the share price cannot take much more of a hit than it already has. I prefer to be

[bicente]

DOO .TO selling for $ 88.49 / share with $6 billion in revenu in 2020 ... the family knows how to run a company , now I hope they run the planes like they run the other toys ... GLTA    

[Mauserintime945]

Bicente , il manque un petit complment d’information qui serait pertinent pour le but de complter ton poste. La famille Bombardier Beaudoin aura gagner son parie grce aux investissements de la caisse de dpt et placement du Qubec ainsi que de la part du Fond Bain Capital. Sans eux crois tu vraiment qu’ils aurait eu du succs?

[bicente]

la relation de la famille et les gouvernments est tres compliquee , j'espere seulment que les gouvernmets vont expliquer aux contribuables que les gouvernments ont fait beaucoup d'argents a cause de les ventes de BT et Cseries ET que les gouvernments vont continuer a en faire pendant bien d'annees a venire .. je croit que les gouvernments vont continuer a faire affaire avec Bombardier

[Shamhorish]

as you said ". les vehicles electriques arrivent a grands pas et Bombardier va etre dans cette croissance ." if that is on bbd agenda ". les vehicles electriques ", it will be great news for us "long bbd"

[bicente]

I don't know if it is " on the bbdb agenda " but I do know that there are talks with  a battery operated snowmobile made by Taiga that is going into production ... having Martel at the helm will be a great positive , especially if theyt keep a couple of the family members away from the cash register ... GLTA  

[Jim99999]

I think you mean Bain knows how to run a company. Jim