Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

Just read all the posts of today.

[BBDB859]

I noticed a few assumptions that I don't agree with, from all the posts of today.

One major assumption is that people here still think that Bombardier statements for 2021 will include other surprises from BT, CRJ, Aerostructures, and other Bombardier liabilities.That is false.

1) We were told by Cameron Doerksen from Bemo that Q4/2020 that just passed included all the surprises that we'll have for this company. They included the losses, gains from sales for all of 2020. He also said that he wants to reserve comments and SP predictions until he see's a full year, Quarter by Quarter 2021 statements. That's not unreasonable.

Why? Because now the Liabilities and Assets of Bombardier have all been acounted for by the Q4/2020. The BT commitments, the cash from CRJ closing, the Aerostructures cash, have all been mentioned in the year end Q4 statements. Look for yourselves. We are now left with BA only. BA has to carry the Debt yes. But BA will have a minimum of $500M CFC to throw at the debt, and whatever else from all the cost savings it can add to the $500M projected EBITDA. Yes they have another $50M a year to throw into the $150M investment in Pearson G7500 facility. But that's it. I see a small loss for 2021 at worse, that's it. Because they might get an upside too ( according to EM's comments of Q4 2021) from the lost deals of the G7500 inventory deals, that they lost from some of the early guys walking away from them because of the pandemic. Go listen to the Q4 results about this on your own. Those slots were early slots, and now they can sell them for higher money. As well we'll get better profits, since they are over 50 units in the production cycle for the G7500. 

The way I see it. I'm staying put until I hear what they are going to say on March 4th. 

2) Posters here don't believe the company can go forward as a stand alone. Because they assume that BA can't handle the high Debt.

I'm a little sceptical there as well with you. 

But having said that. If the above is true and they are trimming the remaining company, as they say, and are getting a slight bump, of even $200M in FCF a year? Then the debt service will be under control. Remember $1.8B of the debt is coming off in 2021. $1.2 is coming off in early 2022. Then in 2021/22 the savings are kicking in from other measures like cuts, like better margins on the G7500. Then we have lower interest rates for new lines of credit. Then we have what they're going to tell us, about the rest of the debt. My guess is that they know something we don't, because they're the ones talking to the JBLTD debt holders. 

So to each his own. You navigate what you want to do with your shares. 

Yes, I've been deceived like a lot of you LONGS here, for 5 years now. But I can wait to be compensated in the next 3 for all their past lies. I can't see them trying to deceive us more that the past. I don't see us being able to buy BBD.B shares cheaper from here. 

People that trade daily can do as they please. To them it's always a gamble. But even for them it's a struggle with these Algo's and Black Boxes. Cheers

[DrSpec_]

145..is that you? where is your “friend” Piere.. Cheers  

[Carpediem01]

Thanks BBDB859 for your projections! How do u estimate  how debt remains after 2022 (paid 1.8 2021and 1.2bln 2022) ?