Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

The learning curve

[lb1temporary]

NOTE: I follow the discussion since friday, this board become very interesting with full of valuable posts. Thanks to all. 

There's still some problems with the explanation given:

• The GL 7500 is a stretch model of all others Global. Its always a 8 feet wide cabin. Its range and avionics could be different but it's not a brand new model ( like the C series was). They built it for 2 years now and they already delivers theirs 50th unit. They had a two digit negative margin in Q4  ( deduction) and they said they will achieve a positive margin somewhere in 2021, but a full contribution only in 2023 (at the end of the actual backlog).

I have some doubt; 5 years for a full contribution for a stretch model, it's a bit too long. The bigger problem could be that the former administration bought the clientele and Martel is caught in a trap with the introductory prices. 

• The 400M$ cost reduction program is extended on 3 years. Usually, this kind of program is for 12, 18 months or two years MAX.

Why ?   Because the company is CCC rated, they have to works in a hurry. 

   

If they already have ideas on the table , why wait 3 years ?

More, usually, the most easy and most valuable improvements are made the first year, the others, more difficult and less valuable are only put in place at the end of the program. It's always the 80% / 20% equation. Bombardier will have only a 100 M$ improvement for 2021, 25% of the program. The larger part for later !!!!

They are shorts on explanations on the conference call, March 4 investor's day could offer more color. 

I hope so.

[1sergedompierre]

it is always the same question : do we beleive them ? a g a i n ! The picture that was always given is the same : there is always some hidden items and EM is more beleivable yes but he also has to deal with the little hidden secrets ..some he may not even know now ...the company lacks credibility and like many people now including analysts : we will beleive them not before but after we see the

[Shamhorish]

1serge,   do we beleive them ? a g a i n ! what  choice do we have? either beleive or walk away, i choose to beleive, Martel said he will be Transparent!!!!!!!!!!  there is always some hidden, that is the big problem and what scary me the most, when they come up with bad surprise and say we did not know this or we did not...... 2 more years without any net profit, i have

[1sergedompierre]

sham...i know how you feel and i feel the same thing -S T U C K - i have no real answer ...in my case i have already sold 300 K share , took a loss and re-invest in much better stocks and made 100 % return in a few months .-my losses on those shares are gone by those new gains - I am happy that i did it and yes lucky ..maybe you can sell a part of it and do the same ...cannabis in the US will be

[johnney]

Hello SD, i'm also upset too, i agree it will be long, no doubt!

[johnney]

SD, i personnally think won't come back where it was before! And as you say E.M. will have to deal with the little hidden secrets, and lack of credibility also! The longest we will stay in the penny stock level, worst it will be for the company! for those who don't loose any money on SP now, might as well change to another direction, before it goes for a reverse split at these prices to

[johnney]

we already beleived them a few times in the past, and q4 is still in the whole! q1 also will be in the whole! 2021 will lose money for the whole year also!

[Shamhorish]

the whole problem here that are causing lose is that bbd pay about 700 million a year of interest Alstom was in a similare situation twice the french gov (had b**ls) got banks, financial institutions to lend Alstom enough billions t at 0 - 1.5% interest and french gov guarnteed those loans, Alstom paid the high interest loans, still owe same amount of billions, but Alstom become proftable and

[joeman]

Canada is crumbling, time to split now before civil war starts (an elimination hockey tournament). The left coast will take Trudeau and Quebec will take PKP.  Everyone else will either choose usa or the queen.

[firstworld]

Canada has been declining for decades with zero investments without subsidies now we are at an end as the 7th most indebted country in the world after mega losers lime France and Belgium. In the meantime USA and Russia teaming up to produce supersonic biz jets....will be on the market in a few years. This is the end of bbd if Airbus biz jets do t kill it first.

[raphaelle2]

Re cost saving delay. The LearJet US plant closure and the Toronto Global plant extension will only materialize in 2022- 23. [tgvquote=lb1temporary]NOTE: I follow the discussion since friday, this board become very interesting with full of valuable posts. Thanks to all.  There's still some problems with the explanation given: The GL 7500 is a stretch model of all others Global. Its

[BBDB859]

Hey temporary. The yellow highlighted question first. Bart knows the Bomber financial state well by now. He was hired because he's a realist I believe. He moves on solid ground from what I see. Thats why he was hired.  Yellow: He knows that Bombardier can't rush in, and invest $400 today, and fix the problems of learning curves, and higher investments to speed up production curves

[lb1temporary]

Thanks, Rafaelle and 859; you made links between the learning curve , the 400M$ program and the Pearson installations and debt reduction; that softened my questionings.  I'm still waiting for March 4. For Q1, ironically, I expect better results than Q4 ( except for special items, of course). Indeed, after the 16 GL 7500 deliveries late last year, I expect a different mix of deliveries

[Shamhorish]

Lb1, good positive talk, i like it and hope bbd will make it, but as you said "For Q1, ironically, I expect better results than Q4 " i hope that too the Q1 2021 be better than Q4 2020 but how do you see this possible if bbd delivered only 8 jets in Q1 (like an average of 1 jet per week) up to now and 50% of Q1 is gone, if they deliver another 2 per week or 3 per week (12, 15) that

[lb1temporary]

It's only opinion, but it's based on the following: After the rush to deliver planes in Q4, I think that it's normal to have a lag in january.   Remember that they made an 114 M$ EBITDA  in Q3/20  with 24 deliveries. I hope that in order to be less demanding on working capital the deliveries will be more balanced from Q1 to Q4.