Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

'Non-scientific' expected 4th quarter revenues of...

[MyNameIsNobody]

... 1.9B (if we reach aircraft delivery target) and 6.1 for 2021.

Here's where it comes from:

If anyone notices mistakes or want to add something please feel free to throw in you two cents.

I've average revenue per aircraft delivered for the firt 3 quarters and here's what I got:

1st:  1.04B revenues for 26 aircrafts = 0.04B per aircraft (40 millions) + 0.26B rev for aftermarket
 
2nd: 1.215B revenues for 29 aircrafts = 0.042B per aircraft (42 millions) + 0.285B for aftermarket

3rd: 1.106B revenues for 27 aircrafts = 0.041B per aircraft (41 millions) + 0.294B for aftermarket

Taking into account the revenue per aircraft in each quarter I've estimated the average price for the 4th quarter to be at least the highest we've seen so it's 42 millions

Estimated 4th: 1.596B revenues for 38 aircrafts = 0.042 per aircraft (42 millions) + 0.304B for aftermarket (around 10 millions increase like the 3rd quarter)

So with Bomber's 1.3B, 1.5B and 1.4B from the first 3 quarters plus 'my' 1.9B 4th I get a 2021 revenue of 6.1B... looks a bit small, was I bit too cautious with my numbers or did I miss something?

Note: I haven't ventured to extrapolate on how many large vs smaller aircraft exported for each quarter so I've average.

GLTAL

[Micmar]

MyName,  I do exactly that average the average and I am now at 53M$ per jet (thinking of increased efficiency, advanced learning curve, increased maintenance revenue since their is more flight hours and G7500 taking more and more delivery space). So if they meet deliveries it’s 39x53= 2.05B$ for Q4.   GLTAL.    

[Micmar]

Sorry it’s 38x53=2.014B$ (BBD told me 82 deliveries september 30).   

[MyNameIsNobody]

Thanks for your thoughts Mic. I thoughts my numbers were a bit too conservative.I hope your estimations are better than mine! (Price is Right Bombardier edition!)

[BBDB859]

I think we're going to be closer to $6.5B. But even we're at $6.35B. That will raise EBITD higher. Hopefully the margins are higher. We'll see.

[MyNameIsNobody]

You are correct 859. Margins are the next big thing once we get over the 'deliver what you promised' hurdle. They are the one thing I didn't want to guess too much about but it's a fact that the 100th Global 7500 is due to come out soon, February If I'm not mistaken, and they were expecting to get the production cost of that aircraft down by 20% once a hundred have been

[BBDB859]

Yes correct Nobody. 20% savings is optimal.The 20% G7500 production savings is huge to getting the Margins up. This will increase margins from existing EBITDA, therefore higher +FCF. If we start to see it as early as Feb./22, as promissed, and I don't see why not? Then the debt service will be a lot easier to handle and the +FCF can go to cover other expenses so we don't have to use