Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

Q4

[Micmar]

I expect the Q4 revenue to be approx 1.8-1.9 Billions and 2021 to be approx 6.1 Billions.   GLTAL!

[MyNameIsNobody]

I'm with you on this, 1.9 and 6.1, but I'll add that these numbers are my floor... that is if they delivered the 120 targeted.  i wouldn't be surprised by 100-200M$ more.

[Micmar]

I think that too but those numbers come from a 122 lines spread sheet and cross references with Q3, Q2 and Q1 revenue. Q4 evaluated with 39 deliveries and list price of all sold models.   

[NoNameAtAll]

I'm expecting the same as I said back in October.  4th quarter will be around $1.97 billion and full year will come inn around $6.25 billion.  That puts them slighly ahead of the market expectations (but not ahead of all analysts).

[MyNameIsNobody]

Wow!... you've put in some time amigo. I posted something about the previous quarters average for revenues per deliveries as well as other revenues a little while ago and came up with 1.9 and 6.1 too. (with a delivery target reached.. so a 38 deliveries 4th quarter) My 100-200M$ extra is an estimation for 2 more deliveries (more likely 125M$) It's fun to be right when estimating but I

[NoNameAtAll]

I agree that the number could be slightly higher for a couple extra deliveries.  However, it is hard to say what that will be as I havn't look at the delivery mix from earlier quarters to last quarter to see whether it should be signifcantly higher.  If we were closer to the 100 deliveries on the 7500 I would be revising my number upward. One thing I did notice is that some analyts

[BBDB859]

I think you're both off. We'll have about 40 planes delivered for the quarter, plus revenues from the busy service side, &  we'll be closer to $2.4B for Q4, and $6.6B for the year. I'm not even counting the Lears.

[Micmar]

Amen BBD, I certainly hope you are right.  I put Q4 at 340 millions for the service side and 0  Learjets.  

[BBDB859]

You can get the same number too Mic. It's easy to calculate. What you have to do is take the average from each Quarter, for all the planes delivered by quarter, and I don't include the Lears. But in that average I include the service side. You'll see that the average per plane has climbed for $53M/plane from Q1 all the way to $63M/plane in Q3. So Q4 should come in around $2.45B for the

[NoNameAtAll]

Your averaging method overestimates revenue from service in Q4.  the reason is that service revenue should be consistent from quartr to quarter.  when you do your averages per plan on the earlier quarters, the service revenue is part of yoru average per plane price.  But when you multiply that service component of your average by 38 for Q4, you end up with service revenue that will

[BBDB859]

Hi NoName. Simply. You can't do Service Revenues your way. Because that's the beauty of the investment into Service Centres. Every 3 to 6 months, each newly renovated Service Centre either grows in capacity or starts operating new. So Revenues from Services from Quarter to Quarter differ dramatically. Just do it the way I do, and you'll see it for yourself. The price per plane is

[NoNameAtAll]

BBDB859, OK, thanks for the explanation.  I do agree that they are expanding service centers right now and that there should be an upward trend.  I also think that the more recent orders for planes would have less discounts and therefore the average per plane shoudl be higher due to that as well.  Seems we are about a year past when they started talking about order activity being

[MyNameIsNobody]

859 - I agree with you on service. Revenues will have to pick up more than a bit over the 10M$ increment it got going from 2nd to 3rd quarter.. wich I based my 4th quarter revenue on... another 10M$ more than the last. (My cautious numbers) At one point we'll be surprised by a big uptick... why not this quarter (your take)

[BBDB859]

Hey Noname. The price of the planes have tightened up for sure to full pop. But the mix of sizes that we get from Quarter to Quarter has a lot to do with higher plane revenues per Quarter too. There are a lot of other Revenue generators, as mentioned before in my previous post that we are not prevy to until we get the financials, because they are probably bulk items that are included in Service

[Micmar]

Here is my evaluation. I have not much time for now to improve it.   Sales # MODEL List$ REVENUE LIST $ RENENUE MAINTENANCE $ Q4 39* BD-700-1A10 $52 000 000,00       Q4 38* BD-700-1A10

[Inuk138]

So Micmar if I understood, you did not count maintenance revenue, just for deliveries (no Learjets) you came with $6.2 Billions of revenues, not bad if you are right and I'm pretty sure your close.

[Micmar]

It’s 6.1 Billions with 340 millions in service.   1.85 Billions for Q4 no learjet.    GLTALongs.

[Skyisthelimite]

Wooooo this board has really gotten interesting in the last few months, sincere thanks for all the usefull info guys and girls and yes GLTAlongs

[ybilodeau]

I agree, I also noticed a dramatic change in the quality of the posts recently.   Thanks to all the contributers and let's keep it that way!

[MyNameIsNobody]

ybilodeau -  Welcome to the board amigo! Quality of posts: Hopefuly it's a sign of good things to come.  I'm curious, since this is your first post, have you been here a long time?  Stock ownership goes way back or recent? For my part, I've owned the stock for years before I decided to post stuff here Good luck with your investments,

[Lukegermany]

nice https://manofmany.com/rides/flying/2022-bombardier-challenger-3500-aircraft?amp

[ybilodeau]

I own BBD.B since 2016, never sold any shares but averaged down a few times to 1.90$.  So we can say I'm long but it's been quite a ride.   I have been following you guys for 2-3 years.  I hope we can repeat 2021 and get back above 3$ soon. Good luck to all of us.

[BBDB859]

Welcome to the Board Ybilodeau. Please fell free to contribute, when ever you have something to add. I've been here since 2016 as well and have went on a similar ride as you.. But i'm now in the black, and I know that the profits are going to start coming in soon. We're left with a small lean, and mean version of Bombardier now, but I have confidence tha,t we'll all be rewarded

[Micmar]

Welcome, I did my first post Feb. 11 2016 so I hope to celebrate in Feb. 10.  GLTALongs!

[MyNameIsNobody]

Hoping that the results will be good enough to have you still celebrating into the 11th. I thought I was 2016er too but looking at the charts and the big lows and it turns out I've owned since 2015.. Patients folks we are.

[bicente]

Welcome to the board , Nice to see some of us getting closer and closer to profits ... the climb back from the gutter hasn't been easy and has taken much longer than I ever imagined but the family did it the honest way , and the hardest way ...  Now we will be rewarded for sticking around and holding ... GLTA quote=ybilodeau]I own BBD.B since 2016, never sold any shares but averaged down

[Skyisthelimite]

Nice numbers, I also tend to agree that we will be surprised, as I mentionned before ''Nobody'' posted a very interesting estimate of average revenus per plane taking the revenus in previous quarters, his estimates were a little lower but still it gives a pretty good idea of were we are going. I'm just curious to know how you got to 40 without the Leers? Mind you, I also think

[BBDB859]

Hey Sky. I think you are refering to my method of average Revs per plane that includes the Service side on the average revs per plane. Nobody splits up per plane and then is reliant on Service revs from Bombardier on the Quarters. Why I bulk it up, by averaging out is simple. Every Quarter the Revs from both Service and plane deliveries are either increasing substantially or at least modestly

[MyNameIsNobody]

859 - I agree with Mic again.. hope the results will be closer to your estimates than ours. My take on this.. I'm kind of cautious about my expectations and you're quite optimistic about yours.