Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

Breakout

[flyman12]

Seems like it is still stuck in the same pattern as before the RS. Up a few donw a few and repeat. Star, are you still anticipating a breakout or has that scenario fizzled do you think?

[PabloLafortune]

I don't presume to reply for star - way more knowledge and experience than I do - but my observation is that most of the share price increase going forward at least % wise is going to come from debt reduction and cadence increase.  Yes the stock is on a forward momentum relatively speaking but the stock market situation is pretty bad - Fed Ex dropped 22% today! Setting aside cadence

[clubhouse19]

Pablo I don't understand  your correlation between market cap and  debt reduction.  Book value is one thing but market cap is very subjective and really doesn't mean much except to investors and traders as it relates solely relates to current share price.  Maybe I am reading your post wrong, but the only way to create value is to increase the book value of the company

[PabloLafortune]

Club, what I'm saying is Bombardier will eventually trade based on P/E ratio, it has to because the comparables Textron (17.3 PE) and GD (19.x) do.  And no matter what numbers I plug in within reason, interest expense reduction is the biggest catalyst to share price appreciation. Here's another approach: Assume $7.5B revenue in 2023 @20% gross margin. $1.5B gross profit. Further

[Starsearcher80]

Thanks for all your hard work here Pablo.  Greatly appreciated.  I agree with everythiing you say, but there is one point of difference between your thinking and mine. You suggest that interest expense reduction is the biggest catalyst to share price appreciation.  On that front, I totally understand and agree. But then you go on to say "Once any debt reduction/redemption is

[PabloLafortune]

Star, I'm not an experienced market participant/trader so I don't have a good sense of how the market operates but for the Q2 results I hesitated before results and then after I read the results I bought and did well.  After years of disappointing results, I felt I was acting rationally... and I suspect this is part (the non interest expense part) of the reason we are not moving up as

[Starsearcher80]

Typically, the market looks forward 4-6 months and prices that in.  Particularly in times of stress, that timeline tends to shorten, and the market gets more emotional and reactive.So at these times, and we are in one of "these times" right now, you tend to get some of the more wild and erratic swings. It makes for a tough market, but is also a sign that we are far closer to the

[PabloLafortune]

BBD is doing better than most the past 30 days but not by a huge factor - Textron and GD are down only 1 and 3% respectively vs BBD  + 2-3%. The biggest market negative is big tech...and they're also the biggest market caps... and the biggest upside has been cruise lines..

[Starsearcher80]

Absolutely, I maintain this stock will breakout all the same.  The quesion in my mind isn't "iff", only one of "when".  Here's my thoughts. 1) Sometimes when you follow a stock, you follow a little too closely. It would be very easy to focus on it being down the past couple of days and be discouraged. I would suggest to pull out the yearly chart, and then

[Sailboatdream]

Star... as you mention, one month chart is encouraging.  But other time frames perhaps less so.  YTD, BBD recent run up only bring this sp back to where it was. for the last week, decreases are as follows: - DOW minus 4.2% - SP 500 minus 4.8% - TSX minus 2% - BBD minus 5.9% BBD doing well considering its beta. Not sure the numbers support the position that it is doing better