Post by
lb1temporary on Jan 18, 2023 2:20pm
CIBC: Target at 67$ (from 57$)
Note from LB1: Too low; See him in 3 weeks with a new upgrade.
Q4/22 Preview
For the quarter, we are forecasting revenue of US$2.50B, up from US$1.77B a year ago and versus consensus of US$2.302B. We expect adj. EBITDA of US$357MM, up from US$232MM a year ago and versus consensus of US$305MM. We would note that consensus numbers might not be comparable given that BBD recently released its preliminary 2022 results. Key items we are looking for on the call are:
1. 2023 Guidance: We expect BBD to provide its outlook for 2023. Our expectations are that BBD will guide to revenue of more than US$7.5B (we are forecasting US$7.8B and consensus is US$7.55B), adj. EBIT of more than US$700MM (we are forecasting $705MM and consensus is US$702MM), and FCF of more than US$550MM (we are forecasting US$530MM and consensus is US$412MM). We also expect the company to guide to 135-145 deliveries for 2023 (we are forecasting deliveries of 143 and consensus is 139). We also expect BBD to maintain its 2025 targets.
2. Business Jet Industry Outlook And Comment On Demand Environment: We will be looking for comments on the outlook for the business jet industry given the potential of a recession. We expect positive demand comments though as the pre-owned inventory level remains low and the backlog remains strong in the industry, both positive for pricing trends. The biggest bottleneck will be managing supply chain issues.
3. Update On Deleveraging Plans: We will be looking for an update on BBD’s deleveraging plan. The company’s gross debt as of Q3/22 was US$6.2B and is approaching annualized interest savings of ~US$300MM. The company continues to target a 3x leverage ratio by 2023, which suggests net debt of ~US$4.5B, but we see BBD on a faster deleveraging path (sub-2.5x by 2025)
Model Adjustments
We have adjusted our model to reflect BBD’s recently released preliminary 2022 results. Our 2022E EBITDA goes to US$511MM (from US$450MM), 2023E EBITDA goes to US$705M (from US$704MM), 2024E EBITDA goes to US$889MM (from US$887MM), and 2025E EBITDA goes to US$1,109MM (from US$1,107MM). Our price target increases from $57 to $65.
NOTE: For 2025 the CIBC analyst forecast a 1631 M$ EBITDA
Comment by
johnney on Jan 18, 2023 2:23pm
They all raising their targets!!
Comment by
Truthifest on Jan 18, 2023 2:40pm
It's common, and ridiculous, for analysts to chase stocks of companies that are successfully turning around. Takes them a long time to see the new truth. Maybe one day more than a few will add real value, lol.
Comment by
Nordico on Jan 18, 2023 3:00pm
Kevin Chiang at CIBC has been the worst of the lot for absurdly low TP over the past year or two. I seem to remember he was a lot more bullish and optimistic a few years back, but must still be affected by the big disappointments from commercial and train divisions. Or maybe he has management forcing him to be ultra-conservative lately.
Comment by
Nordico on Jan 18, 2023 3:53pm
Was referring to worst of the analysts covering Bomber, and their respective target prices.
Comment by
johnney on Jan 18, 2023 4:34pm
Quote: Journal de Montreal, another Toi.... Pap, instead of mentionningvthe news, kerosene forget their paper, and not shy, even if I do live in Quebec province!!
Comment by
BBDB859 on Jan 18, 2023 4:05pm
No effort to this Analysis. EBITDA for the years are wrong and the LTD amounts are wrong. CIBC analysts are off.
Comment by
johnney on Jan 18, 2023 4:38pm
Quote: They are always the last ones to get on the train, but important! The more important are TD, and RBC, for most of the Games!
Comment by
Nordico on Jan 18, 2023 4:40pm
Bomber literally just said 2022 EBITDA is 930M and then CIBC says they're updating their 2022 EBITDA estimate to 511M; lol okayyyy...
Comment by
johnney on Jan 18, 2023 5:03pm
Quote: Just pay attention what the Bomber has said, their running the company not this Analyste, probably want to mix people!!
Comment by
lb1temporary on Jan 18, 2023 5:13pm
He mixed up something. His table right under his Models adjustments description is right with a 935 M$ EBITDA for 2022 and 1631 M$ for 2025. Anyway, he will be forced to adjust again his target in a few weeks.