Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

All good for now

[stockitnow]

Today was all talk and fluff.  That's the nature of investor day.  Nothing changed today from yesterday.

Quarterly reports are the only score card to track Bombardiers performance against what they say.  Only future Quarterly reports will tell.

However Bombardier now has some credibility on actually achieving what they say.  Unlike during PB time when we had pretty PowerPoint and no substance.

2023 has to be better then 2022 and 2024 better then 2023 or 2025 goals will slip.

[PabloLafortune]

The things I retain from this press release are: #1, they control the timing of revenue. Its up to them subject to parts constraints etc when they want to ship the backlog. So the 2023 and 2024 top line can pretty much be taken to the bank. #2, they won't make these projections esp regarding bottom line without a firm grasp on future revenues, costs and margins as that would be you know what..

[BBDB859]

Hey Pablo. I don't mean to nit-pick here, because everything you said about the transformation of the company is right. Except the very end of your statement about the Backlog being a single possible failure of the company. This true of every company. If Boeing or Airbus don't get orders, they're in the same boat. In fact if any company doesn't get orders, or sell their products

[PabloLafortune]

859, everybody is bullish for good reason but we need Cassandra's* in this world and that's me. Investors should not be overconfident. Bombardier is not yet at the point where operating cash-flow is strong enough to weather a backlog storm. We need to see those quarterly results and operating cash-flow improvements.   * when Nortel was $75 and analysts set a target of $125 I

[BBDB859]

Point well taken Pablo. Because not only are you right about over enthusiasm. But the reality is that it's just too soon to feel comfortable about their accomplishments yet. If they aren't robbing the company blind as they were doing pre BT closing? That is the biggest accomplishment for me. The growth will come. They ran the company like it was a FCF sieve in the past. So they didn't

[PabloLafortune]

You know 859, i hadn't posted here for a while but somebody threw this Brennan HR guy under the bus so I chimed in because I knew different that he was the only one who put his own money in (circa 2017). So when I was going thru the SEDI report, I saw all those solius capital transactions by officers (that's the scheme where management was exercising in the money options if you recall) and

[BBDB859]

Pablo, I think that what you're seeing is REAL confidence in their Backlog right now. Remember how things work with Backlog. Once you get the deposits, you have to be prudent with them. You have to put aside the Inventory money, to purchase the needed product parts. There is of course 15% to 20% of the deposit that is useable for other things. But in generally it has to be managed properly

[bicente]

  you can't compare Nortel to the bomber because the bomber has a different share structure . The family has control of the company instead of a " money hungry - fill my pockets before I go " president and his croonies cooking the books ... the family didn't take the money and run because to some extent it is somewhat of a "family business" ... this control has

[clubhouse19]

Is he for real comparing Nortel to the bomber ??   The stock acturlly went to 125.00 canadin... I remember as if it was yesterday. I even visited the plant on trans canada as our company was selling to them big time. I had just gotten out of the stock with very little loss but made it back tarding when it went down to 80 cents. That was a total accounting fraud with cooking of the books by

[bicente]

I visited those offices too , went to meet a friend and we headed back to the east end for lunch with my accountant . The Nortel employee asked my acountant how he could cash out some of his Nortel RRSP money while avoiding / paying less  taxes and my accountant told him it was not possible .We were not even close to retirement but he wanted to buy up some real estate with that money. Boy

[PabloLafortune]

I was not and am not comparing the company Bombardier to Nortel.  I was warning investors against irrational exuberance by analysts and stockhouse posters which basically is what the last 2 pages of stockhouse posts was ..  I said I was a Cassandra put a star on the word Cassandra as a "footnote" and gave an example of what I did in that regard in the past and used the example

[bicente]

na na na , don't you try that twisting chit  stuff here ...just beacuse you put an asterix doesn't remove what you said ..you compared the 2 because you used exhuberance a measure and compared the 2 .. this is not the same thing here , you do not have the same scenario and no need to give examples of Cassandra to warn shareholders that they are at risk ..the whole market is based on

[clubhouse19]

Bicente He sure was comparing and falsely at that. He surely does not understand why Nortel failed and it was not because of over exhuberance. this Pablo guy has it all wrong with this false comparison. He just has proven out his ignorance of the facts when trying to compare one with the other as they should not even be in the same ball park as far as comparisons are concerned.   

[bicente]

but that is the sentiment in the markets by far .. put all the companies in the same boat when in fact it is the complete opposite ...for example , had the bomber been in the USA with the Cseries they would have made out like bandits ...the bomber will never be worth what it should be just beacuse it is in Canada AND worse , in Quebec ... unless they partner up , they will always carry thatr cross

[bicente]

good points for sure .I would add that no business can guarantee that their sales will not change 2 years ahead of time , even though they might have signed contracts ...that's the nature of risk and all that it involves,  including trust in the team at the helm ... the family did not say a peep and they know their place , it's about making money now , not flashing around , padding

[PabloLafortune]

That would be bad form for sure if they did that...