Post by
BBDB859 on Oct 04, 2023 10:48am
Scotia Report
Thanks Nobody.
This report is very detailed. Coming from Scotia too, who are very conservative similar to CIBC in cautious numbers. I'd have to say that the information is very valuable, and very close to the low end of optimism.
According to the conservative FCF numbers, I would even go further on the LTD, and say that the 2025 LTD, will be in the $3.5B range, and Net debt will be $2.5B range. Those numbers are astonishing, given that the company was at $10.5B LTD, in Jan., 2021, and no hopes of stopping the bleeding on the cashburn side. This to me says that problem was BT and it ran/dragged the company to the ground.
People here that are Longs are lucky, and can take the easy way out on the stock. You can sit, and relax, & let the stock take it's course, which btw, is what I will probably be doing until 2025. To play or trade this stock is not easy. So just sit on the fence, and enjoy the ride up. If you take the Scotia's numbers of 1.5 X the current SP by 2025? Then you're at close $200/S. That's a pretty good pay day in 2025.
To me this is the direction that this company is going, under the helm of BD/EM. I see no Capex worries, at around $200M/Ann.. Strong FCF generation annualy. No supply isssues in getting to the New Annual plane delivery targets up to 150. With Pearson, the Service side maturing, & even the Military side picking up a couple of orders, the Bomber will be a FCF generating machine. No reason to sit and listen to people spreading fear here on this forum. Live your lives and enjoy the upside. A lot can happen between now then of course. But to me it's all a simple execution game for the company from now on, and this is a great hands-on team for my money. JMHO
Comment by
stock4life48 on Oct 04, 2023 11:43am
I am not in the least worried about the long term picture, its more the next 3-6 months that concern me as we are down 35-40% in the last 6 months. I've loaded the boat as much as I can
Comment by
Sat123 on Oct 04, 2023 12:01pm
Hello 859, thank you for your thoughts. Just wondering how you arrived at 200$. If the current price is 45$, then 1.5 or 150% increase gets us to approx 113$. Am I wrong?
Comment by
flyman12 on Oct 04, 2023 1:47pm
He's probably calculating the 150% above their $84. target. Can never be too optimist.
Comment by
BBDB859 on Oct 04, 2023 2:51pm
I used the pre-shorting period SP of $75, although the Scotia $84 target is closer as Flyman says. We still haven't gotten there, but we did get to $75. In fact if you read the report from Scotia, that $75 is the number they've implied the 1.5 times from. I would guess that, given the market demand for shares then, the stock would climb to the $200 range by 2025
Comment by
Shamhorish on Oct 04, 2023 7:52pm
i hope it reach 300$ by 2025 (=good dream) but in reality, if bbd reach 100$ by 2025, we should be very happy and if it reach 100 by 2025, then we hope it will keep going up 10$/year
Comment by
Mauserintime945 on Oct 04, 2023 8:40pm
Now is not the time to sell the bear's skin before you have captured it.
Comment by
BBDB859 on Oct 05, 2023 12:12pm
Sham. You don't anyone's support to agree with your post here. You don't need snakes telling you, your $100 SP is good. If you need support for your $100 SP in 2025? I tell you that, your guess as good as anybody's here. No one can guess the right price by 2025. I support your $100, and I hope that the Scotia report of $200 is correct.