Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

Q2 .. if Bombardier has same delivery # than CCAR

[MyNameIsNobody]

Q2 Manufacturing revenues, based on last few Q stats, might look like this (Still a few days left):

Q	ManuRev	Deliveries	Rev/Aircr	Mid-Large	ratio
Q2-23	1.237B$	29	42.66M$	15-14	51.7-48.3
Q3-23	1.433B$	31	46.2M$	16-15	51.5-48.5
Q4-23	2.571B$	56	45.9M$	24-32	43-57
Q1-24	0.795B$	20	39.75M$	12-8	60-40
Q2-24	1.419B$	33	43M$	16-17	48.5-51.5

I've increased the revenue margins per aircraft by 1% for Q2-24 because delivery ratio is tilting on the large models, compared to Q2-23 and margins should naturally improve a bit.

Based on lthis, and service revenues that should increase a bit from the 477M$ of Q1-24, we're now looking at possible total revenues of a bit over 1.9B$ for Q2

What do you guys think? ... too optimistic? Of course we could end up with 5 deliveries less on Bombardier's report than what CCAR listed, like in Q1

[Jacques4444]

Im with you, 1,9B so far. June not finish, others delivery?. The number of planes delivered can be a surprising news and the aftermarket numbers. BBD make almost 4 fly tests/day now. The numbers of planes services places have increase. Im optimistic, Q2 can be a catalyst situation announcing futur Q results, numbers will going up, around 100 planes have to be delivered in 2024...the sky is

[trademorestock]

1.9 Bil max revenue.  It will be positive earnings probably $0.40 to 0.50 eps and fcf will be negative around 150 mil

[Inuk138]

Trade, I would like to know in your Q2 valuation you estimate a loss of $150 mil FCF. Can you elaborate on this loss?

[MyNameIsNobody]

I don't know how Trademorestock got to 150M$ for the negative FCF but I can tell you that Eric Martel mentioned that the first half of the year would see negative FCF, like previous years, and the second half would see positive FCF that would bring a very positive  full-year one.