Post by
Tempo1 on Jul 21, 2024 3:52pm
Fasten your seat belts folks
From CIBC Transportation & Aerospace Weekly
Note from Tempo1 : Aviation week surely have access to the management of EOM for the count. Special thanks to the 2 or 3 posters who follow the CCAR count. IIt seem that you are rtight with your count.
Aviation Week published its June business aviation deliveries.
We would note the following.
• Q2/24 business aviation aircraft deliveries totaled 285 units (business jets and business turboprops and piston aircraft). This compares to 264 units delivered in Q2/23. Business jet deliveries totaled 189 aircraft, up from 175 units the year prior. Business turboprop and piston aircraft deliveries totaled 96 units in Q2/24, up 7 units Y/Y.
• Looking at business jet deliveries, Aviation Week noted that in the second quarter: Textron delivered 42 aircraft; Pilatus delivered 15 aircraft; BBD delivered 37 aircraft; Embraer delivered 27; Cirrus delivered 22 aircraft; and Gulfstream delivered 32 aircraft.
• According to Aviation Week, BBD delivered 14 Challenger 3500s, four Global 6500s, three Global 5500s, 10 Global 7500s, one Global 6000, and five Challenger 650s in Q2/24. We are currently modeling 30 units to be delivered in the second quarter and consensus is at 32 aircraft.
• Utilization rates for large jets and medium jets were up 2% and 4%, respectively, in Q2/24 versus the prior year. Small jets were down 3% Y/Y. We continue to see large/medium cabin aircraft outperform, which bodes well for BBD
Comment by
BBDB859 on Jul 21, 2024 4:23pm
This is great news Temp. CIBC has confirmed the guys total of 37. Thanks for the good work guys.
Comment by
Thebomber2023 on Jul 21, 2024 4:44pm
Tempo, Thank you for all the info you share. However, I have a question, I wonder how Aviation week is a reliable source of information. It seems to me that the National Bank had published deliveries of 31 or 32 aircraft for this quarter ?
Comment by
johnney on Jul 21, 2024 5:06pm
Hope will be closer to 37! 35! Glta!
Comment by
Tempo1 on Jul 21, 2024 5:18pm
Each broker has theirs forecasts, RBC Desjardins, TD CIBC etc. In my opinion, as specialised media, aviation week doesn't make farecasts but counts. They surely have direct access to OEMs.
Comment by
johnney on Jul 21, 2024 5:32pm
Let's see tomorrow how the markets will react with Biden pulling out and the rest of the week and after results!
Comment by
BBDB859 on Jul 21, 2024 5:53pm
This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy
Comment by
stockitnow on Jul 21, 2024 10:28pm
I am making an assumption here, and I hope to be wrong, but Aviation week might be counting certified used direct delivery from bombardier. From there prospective they might be counting all aircraft directly delivered from OEM. It doesn't matter to them if it's new or used. Only the quarterly results will give accurate quantity.
Comment by
BBDB859 on Jul 21, 2024 10:40pm
Great assumption Stock. It occurred to me too. The only reason I discounted this thought process was, was that, why did it only start in Q1/24? Why were we so spot on in delivery counts the previous Quarters in the whole of 2022/3 years of CCAR counts?
Comment by
johnney on Jul 21, 2024 10:49pm
. Does this means, that the 150, to 155 BJ planned to deliver in 2024, includes or may be a few used ones, considered as delivered!!
Comment by
BBDB859 on Jul 21, 2024 11:05pm
No Johnney. That stays the same, 150 to 155 NEW planes.
Comment by
Tempo1 on Jul 21, 2024 11:43pm
Embraer and Textron has just released theirs quarter results in the last days and Aviation Week was right on their number of new deliveries (27 and 42).
Comment by
stockitnow on Jul 22, 2024 8:33am
That's assuring to know. Thanks.
Comment by
Skyisthelimite on Jul 21, 2024 10:02pm
Woooo !!!! spot on with the deliveries guys, and a bunch of big ones (2 to 1 globals) we should be on the high end of the average per plane of about 45M for a total of around 1660M of manufacturing revs and we can all agree on about 490M in maintenance Rev for total around 2.150B not bad.... Investment cummunity should be happy with those numbers I know I would(will). Gltalongs
Comment by
MyNameIsNobody on Jul 22, 2024 7:10am
Sky - My ratio (CCAR) and the Aviation Week one provided by Tempo1, are almost 50-50, for mid and large models. It would be great if they still managed to get the average price to 45M$ but my conservative estimate is 43M$. We'll know all about this in a few days. Good luck amigo!
Comment by
MyNameIsNobody on Jul 22, 2024 6:57am
Tempo1 - Thanks for the info. Can't wait to see this 37 deliveries confirmed once again, by Bombardier this time, on thursday. Now, if maintenance is a bit better than I expect, or a as good as some believe it will be (over 500M$ for the 1st time), The valuation of Bombarder will surely pass a psychological hurdle for many investors and institutions. GLTA