If a Cessna pilot wears an Air Canada’s pilot costume, passengers will get caught by the sham but the jet’s Captain will see quickly that the guy never flies a Boeing.
On our board, A guy is bragging how he is smart and that he managed a 8 digit portfolio, giving advices around him . …’’they usually grill me on questions which I have every answer to …’’ (july 23 post). He manages it himself. He must have had a huge success accumulating that portfolio. He must be skillful. OK, let’s take a closer look:
- He has a 11X EV/EBITDA hypothesis and a 188$ target for BBD next year (his july 5 post)( telling that is only his average prediction on july 23). Even the most bullish analysts (RBC, TD and Desjardins) had a more modest target at 133$, 129$ and 143$. More importantly, their multiples are at 8X (RBC), 8,25X (TD) and 8,5 X (Desj) for 2025. We all love Bombardier but there is no magic.
He is so out of bound It would be surprising if he had any success with such stretched thinking. This kind of target disturbs the judgment and misleads the allocation of money or investments. That brings moments like Thursday when he has been caught pants down with his 10000 shares bought the day before.
- But he added more, let’s see the time frame: Thursday, he wrote at 11.04 that he was nervous, but 56 minutes later he told us that he had placed an order for 10 000 more shares. Finally, he bought 22 000 more that day. He wrote that he could not access the NBF opinion that day and the RBC opinion was published at 4:16 after the market closed. So, he bought it for 2 M$ after being nervous and before any analyst publications. WOW. His money was flying.
…’’and prove my hunches with solid information, research, fundamental and technical analysis….’’ (b..sh..t, july 23, 12:03 )
So, he added a total of 60% more shares in 2 days to the 55 000 shares he had. Only gambling, speculative and emotional moves. Not a recipe for the kind of success he is bragging about. Sure, chance happens but chance is not a strategy.
- He only use the Royal bank analysis and writes only about them. I don’t have a 8 digit portfolio and I managed to have access to 5 different brokers; each one is better in an area (service, data, prices, ease of use, bonds, options, etc) , and the best analyst for each sectors are not with the same broker (for BBD it’s RBC and Desjardins) . I’m not alone like that with a portfolio of the size of mine. But with a 8 digit portfolio, it is a must, he could even talk with analysts. Why does he never try to have these access with such a large portfolio? Is he so smart that he doesn't need them ? A 300 K$ deposit is enough to have access to analysis of the most secretive broker. He doesn't !!! Mystery ?
- He has an account at NBF, but he doesn't know that analysts there send their analysis at some news wire and at selected clients (like the 8 digit portfolio managers) before publishing them in a batch the day after for the other clients (Thursday posts).
I don’t have the time (and the will ) to follow many companies seriously and closely; it’s so time consuming. Investing 5, 10 or 20 000$ in a company doesn’t require a lot of work but you can’t invest 100 k$ and more in a stock and have success if you allow only a limited time to each of them. Not to mention that work to identify your next investment is huge; you have to look at 15 or 20 stocks before finding one. So, a part of my portfolio is managed by a full service broker (my choice). He managed my diversified stock portfolio. I kept the charge of my bonds portfolio and a bunch of 6 to 8 companies with which I have the most important investments. Managing a 10-99 M$ portfolio is close to the professional level and almost a full time job. Professionals with all their skills and the support of a team around them can’t do this part time, how can he do it alone? . How can he follow all his large portfolio, during the Q2 results weeks (July 15 to august 10), and, at the same time, follow conversations and posting more than 10 times a day on our board? with such success ? Superman? No, only by bambling and by emotional moves like the ones he did thursday.
- He wrote June 11 that an A- rating ‘’is not impossible’’ for BBD in the next 12 months. NO, it is impossible even in 3 years. This affirmation tells me that he has only a basic knowledge of ratings and so, a limited experience in bonds. Rating agencies are conservatives and have only a long term vision. At best, they move only a notch at a time every 6-12 months. For example, It took Air Canada 7 years to climb from CCC to BB+ (2012-2019) with constant solid performances. Not to mention the A- rating, reserved to some banks, selected large companies or governments. So, even with a thin experience in fixed assets, he managed a 8 digit portfolio??? or, at contrario, with a so large portfolio, he never learns more than basics about ratings?
In conclusion, did he add one or two 0$ to its real holdings and trades ? Hummuum…What do you think?.
…or if true, he didn’t get it by growing it by himself, maybe, an inheritance recently. If so, his self management will not last long.
Interested to read his opinions ? Sure, he has a positive input. I will read them like all others. Only annoyed by the bragging and lessons he tried to give to some.
Flying a Cessna is already very good, why try to make us believe that he is flying a Boeing?