Post by
Jacques4444 on Aug 26, 2024 1:02pm
RBC / Desjardins analysts cherry picking.
Desjardins :
200+ order options from large operators. (me : thats huge, consolidate futur backlog)
Tweaking our estimates but maintaining our target of C$143. Our target is based on an unchanged EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.6x on our 2025 EBITDA forecast of US$1,630m (me: very conservative). We also increased our exchange rate to C$1.38/US$1 (from C$1.37/US$1).
BBD reiterated that the #1 priority for excess FCF remains debt repayment, and it intends to pay down ~US$800m of debt over the next 18 months. Once that goal is achieved, management will consider deploying excess cash toward either: (1) shareholder returns; (2) investments in the existing fleet; or (3) small opportunistic vertical M&A in problematic areas of the supply chain.
BBD delivered 39 jets in 2Q (19 Globals and 20 Challengers), ahead of consensus of 32 and our estimate of 33 as some orders were pulled forward into 2Q from 3Q. Fewer deliveries are now expected in 3Q (me: maintening a better backlog), meaning that 4Q will once again drive the show with ~40% of annual deliveries. Second, we believe the fact that BBD delivered more jets than expected in 1H removes some execution risk for 2H (and especially 4Q),
RBC:
...''>$900MM (me: meaning, possibility to reach 1 billion). We expect higher FCF to be driven by better operating margins, lower interest costs, and decreased working capital investment.
Key is that we estimate each of Defense, CPO, and Services have EBITDA margins of >20% (me: margins will be a game changer for the Market) providing a platform for significant operating leverage longer-term.
shares will re-rate higher. ''...
Me: The re-rate after Q3 will bring higher estimations and targets (will going to more then 150$). Those reports/analysts are conservatives. BBD always beat the analysts projections, thats why Im more optimistic (BBD keep doing business as usual) and BBD can reach 155$ in a year.