TSX:BBD.A - Post Discussion
Post by
retiredcf on Sep 30, 2024 8:49am
TD Report
CANADA BEST IDEAS: GROWTH, DELEVERAGING & RE-RATING PRESENTS OPPORTUNITY
THE TD COWEN INSIGHT
We believe Bombardier is transitioning from a turnaround story to a re-rating story. We believe a re-rating is warranted given significant operational and financial progress made by the new management team from 2020 through Q2/24, our 2-3 year forecast growth, and expectations for further deleveraging, revenue diversification, and returning capital to shareholders beyond 2025.
Summary Of Our Thesis
We believe Bombardier is transitioning from a turnaround story to a multiple expansion story and that its large EBITDA valuation discount (1.6x) relative to comps will decline as earnings increase, FCF power expands, balance sheet leverage declines, capital is returned to shareholders and the equity market increasingly appreciates the declining risk profile.
Since 2020, the company has increased revenue at a 13% CAGR through 2023 based on 11% Aircraft Manufacturing growth and 21% Aftermarket growth. Adjusted EBITDA has increased at an 84% CAGR and margin has expanded by more than 1,100 bps to a historically high 15.3%. We believe that volume, contract pricing, mix and aftermarket revenue growth will drive another 300 bps of adj EBITDA margin expansion leading to growth in EBITDA and EPS of 12% and 17% CAGR's, respectively from 2023 through 2026.
Following FCF usage of $1.9 billion in 2020, the company has generated $1.1 billion of cumulative FCF over the past three years. We forecast cumulative FCF from 2024 through 2026 of $2.2 billion.
Growth in FCF has helped to drive down net debt to adjusted EBITDA to 3.5x from over 10x. We estimate that the company will continue to drive leverage lower to 1.8x by 2025 and achieve an investment grade balance sheet by 2026.
We forecast strong aftermarket services growth while the company is targeting a 2x-3x increase in defense revenue by the end of the decade. We believe these businesses should attract higher multiples and as the market is able to observe growth in these sources of incremental EBITDA, we believe it will provide another reason for long-term multiple expansion.
General: The data above (excl. 12-month dividend estimate and float shares) reflects FactSet data. Refer to our comp table for TD's calculation.
Management believes the company has the potential to generate $1.0-1.5 billion of defense revenue (10-17% CAGR relative to 2023) and $2.8-3.9 billion of aftermarket revenue (5.9-11.9% CAGR relative to TD's 2024 forecast) by 2030. We estimate that the revenue from these businesses could provide incremental upside potential equity value/share of C $22-C$89 relative to our 2025 forecast.
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