Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

All I can say is WOW!

[vonSachsenanhal]

Clearly some big players have begun accumulating this stock in anticipation of a blow out year ahead.

[Shamhorish]

yes, a big WOW SINCE 9 OF SEPT 2024 AND BBD.B IS GAINING VALUE AND MOMETUM WHICH IS GREAT FOR US LONG WHO HAVE SEEN IT GOING DOWN HILL OR STAGINATING FOR VERY LONG TIME. AFTER ALL, IT IS STILL AT $4.44 PRE SPLIT

[Tempo1]

Caution, Thinking by pre-split SP could mislead you. The current valuation is 11,5 B$ for Bombardier with an Enterprise value (EV=Market + net debt) of 16 B$ for an EBITDA of 1,500 -1 600 M$ for 2025 (estimated). We are now at a reasonnable valuation. We are no more at a cheap price.  The reevalution period is over. I think that it is now a growth stock and the future upgrades are linked to

[Shamhorish]

TEMPO1, THANKS FOR THE FINE DETAILS

[Letsmakemoredol]

I'll agree on the pre-split comment, everything these I disagree because you are combining USD and CAD without proper conversions Market cap = 11.5B CAD Net Debt as of Q2 2024 = 4.5B USD = 6.15B CAD EBITDA = 1.6B in 2025 (it should be min as forecast is over that, but lets be conservative) = 2.2B CAD EV/EBITDA = (11.5+6.15B)/2.2 = 8x which is still low because I could easily argue 10x

[Tempo1]

You are right, hawk eye,  I was too fast on the trigger. I was caught by an easy mistake. Finally, there some place left for the recovery, maybe to 125$.  Anyway, I didn,t plan to sell my shares. One thumb up.

[ChrisM5527]

If I understand what LetsMake is saying, the upside to the current ratio of EV/EBITDA is approx. something like $125.  If the ratio changes to 10x then maybe it goes much higher ($175 ?).  Or something along those lines.  That's an important distinction since it shows the SP consists of many variables, not just where we are right now. If I got this wrong, perhaps someone can

[BBDB859]

Hey Letsmake. Welcome to the board. Just a couple of quick questions, and maybe you can answer them and maybe not? Are you Canadian? It doesn't really matter. Just curious. I'm from Toronto. What do you think about calculating the present/current share price (SP) using the  EV/EBITDA formula/system for todays SP, and future 2025 share price using the GGM formula? I don't like

[Letsmakemoredol]

ChrisM - depending on which EBITDA number you use, yes it should be around $175.  Currently 2025 EBITDA its forecast by management to be >1.625B.  Given they have always met or beat guidance, generally beat over met, I am thinking we could see numbers pushing 1.7B,  Some analysts user under under 1.6B which I disagree with.  We are all entitled to our own opinion BBDB859

[BBDB859]

The simplest way I would get the company's value is through the Income Approach, backed up by Market Sales Comparison Approach. More Income leaning here. EBITDA for 2024 should be somewhere around $1.4B USD. I would apply a 10X, (today's sales Incme/comparison approach) the multiple on a business sale, and say that an outright sale of the company, would be worth $14B to $15B in today'

[Letsmakemoredol]

BBDB859, thanks for your numbers.  I'm on my phone so can't type paragraphs at this time and will reply later It would appear your SP are in USD?

[Transit77]

Great post. But is this in "CAD" (which would in fact make me very happy and be in line with my numbers) or "USD"??? Please say USD : ) Jk just say what currency your speaking in that's all. Thanks. 

[BBDB859]

Yes of courseit'sin USD. Bombardier does it's financials in USD.

[Transit77]

So your saying the potential future SP is the following based on todays exchange.........is = to 220.00 US Dollars = 303.50876 Canadian Dollars 1 USD = 1.37959 CAD 1 CAD = 0.724856 USD   US Dollar to Canadian Dollar conversion — Last updated Oct 14, 2024 at 11:35 UTC

[BBDB859]

Hey Transit. I was trying to find a different way to find the true EV (Enterprise Value for the Bomber). I realized, now that the Bomber is profitable, the company itself or what's left of it, is worth way more than when and what we sold BT for, which btw, was bleeding cash. So I was just trying to do an Evaluation for the newly created company Business Aviation (Old BBA before 2021), to see

[Letsmakemoredol]

BBDB859, for what its worth General Dynamics has a current EV/EBITDA ratio of 16.53x according to Forbes:  https://www.forbes.com/companies/general-dynamics/ I decided to back this up and found another source on yahoo finance which gives 16.63x  https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GD/key-statistics/ I am choosing GD as their Gulfstream division is pretty much near idential to

[BBDB859]

Hey Letsmakemore. First of all, have a great and Happy Thanksgiving day to all of you today. Letsmake, we've been seeing those #'s floated around here many years now. The multiples aren't wrong for the Industry. They make sense. They just aren't proved, or better, varified, by actual sales of any of these BJ companies. So that's kind of hard to justify even my 10X multiple

[Letsmakemoredol]

BBDB859, Happy Thanksgiving to you as well, although I am still in the USA where its Columbus Day and like the US, its just a normal work day.  Interesting fact I found out recently, there is no requirement for private US employers to give stat holidays off or give additional pay so its a regular work day here.  Anyway... I posted those EV/EBITDA numbers for discussion or entertainment

[BBDB859]

Thanks for the well wishes. I tried doing the Gulfstream #'s separately once and couldn't get very far either. So I just guesstimated as to the EBITDA, and the BJ's side of things, all the while trying to separate the military side. It's hard to dissect what value is added there from the military side. What I deduced is, is that GD's military Revs were much too convoluted to

[Letsmakemoredol]

BBDB859 If you dive deep enough you can figure some of it out I can tell you that this is what is expected in 2024 Revenues:  $12.7 Billion EBITDA:  $1.778 Billion (margin at 14% is you were wondering) Deliveries:  160 Note:  not saying they will get these, this is their guidance and we all know they have delivery problems and Hurricane Helene drove right thru Savannah

[BBDB859]

Honestly.  My priority here was and still is the Finacncial Statements of Bombardier. I have a lot invested in Bombardier, so that's my focus. Once I diversify some of the cash that I diverted from other stocks to here, I'll just stay invested in BBD in this sector, since I know this company well. In one or 2 years, I'll even reduce half of the profit to other stocks. I'm

[Letsmakemoredol]

BBDB859, I don't have anything invested in Gulfstream/General Dynamics and only produced those numbers to compared apples to apples with BBD since I can't find another company that closely resembles BBD.  I like to know my invested competitors as much as the company I have invested heavily in.  That's it. I still believe BBD has a lot of jet fuel left in the tank and the jet

[BBDB859]

Hey Letsmakemore I get the reason for your enquiry about Gulfstream. I'm just not interested in trying to decipher this discrepancy in their Revs. It's just too time consuming for us to try to guess why it's happening. It looks fishy to me. I'm just saying that at best the reported Revs of $12.7B are very likely convoluted. What I'm saying is, is that they are showing close to