Post by
BBDB859 on Oct 18, 2024 9:07am
Value of the shares
Given the confusion of the past little while. I'm going to do the #'s in US funds as they are done in USD in the Bombardier Financials, and then convert the final SP to Canadian.
I'll use the EV= FCF + LTD - Cash on Hand formula. Notice I'm not using MC (market cap) because MC is a manipulated # that the Market plays with daily.
So the real value of the shares for 2024 IMHO should be. I'm using a 15.5% Margin on $9.15B Revs this year. They'll pay down some LTD of say $300M too. I'm counting Cash on hand lower at $1.4B for this year, because they actually hold a lot of cash on hand $1.8B for operations for Q1 & Q2 every year for Inventory. And I'm using a 10 X Multiple as it's peers are using for their shares today. We should we discount our shares to the our Peers?
EV= $10.1B + $5.2B - $1.4B = $152 USD or $200.00 CAD
So the 2024 Share price should be $200.00 + or - in Canadian dollars because we're on the TSE
The real value of the shares for 2025 should be. I'm using a 16.5% Margin because I think will be there after this year. Everything else stays the same.
EV= $16B + $5.2B - $1.4 = $200.00USD or $275.00 + or - in CAD
So the real SP for 2025 should be + or - $275.00 CAD
So as you can see from the above. You can see the #'s are rough, but they don't lie. We should be trading around those prices per share. Because that's the shares value. As I see it. There is a chance for people to almost double their money from todays share of $110. Also close to triple their money by the end of 2025. The Institutions see this and are going to start pilling in sooner rather than later. So it game on for private Investors and Institutions.
That's a pretty good return. This is JMHO and everyone should do their Due Dilligence on their own, and NOT just rely on my numbers. I only use them for my benefit. But even for me they are rough and anything could happen in these future. The 2024 year is pretty solid because it's nearly the books, but 2025 is still a guessing game. BTW I'm hoping for a 3 for 1 split sometime by the end of 2025.
GLTA of us who have held these shares patiently for so long.
Comment by
Shamhorish on Oct 18, 2024 9:26am
while share split 3 for one looks profitable for investores ? it is tricky and could be VERY BAD MOVE BY BBD AND I THINK MANAGEMENT ARE SMARTER THAN DOING SPLIT 3 FOR ONE SPLIT WILL TRIPLE NO OF SHARES AND BRING EARNING /SHAR DOWN TO 33% OF ITS VALUE AND HOW FINANCIAL WILL LOOK RIGHT AFTER??????????????????
Comment by
MyNameIsNobody on Oct 18, 2024 9:27am
859 - Maybe i missed an update on the range provided by Bombardier but at the beginning of the year, they submitted an 8.4 to 8.6 B$ range. I know they under promise and overdeliver lately but that's a lot more money. Are my Bombardier numbers not up to date or are you just optimistic about it with your 9.15B$?
Comment by
ChrisM5527 on Oct 18, 2024 10:46am
859 and LetsMake: I see the $200 by end of 2025 as a minimum (no numbers to back it up, just that FCF of $1B and no tax payout). If it gets to $275, well, retirement will be fun! All the best...
Comment by
BBDB859 on Oct 18, 2024 11:52am
Hope u have a good retirement Chris.
Comment by
Letsmakemoredol on Oct 18, 2024 1:21pm
859/ChrisM - I think we ALL are going to have a good retirement!
Comment by
Truthifest on Oct 18, 2024 10:43am
The multiple is where the current stk price most disagrees with the uber bulls here. The only biz-jet pure-play, and a levered one, naturally gets a lower multiple. The argument is over how much lower. As leverage declines and diversification within their only biz increases, only natural to expect the multiple to increase over time.