Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

Q3/24 Revs

[BBDB859]

Thanks for the plane count Tempo & Nobody

Q3/2024

I estimate that we should have between:

-$1.95B & $2B in Revs for Q3
-Margins of $420M
- EBIT of $180M
-+FCF of $100M + or -

We are getting into stronger positive teritory in FCF for this Quarter and next Quarter. Although next quarter Q4/24 will be 62 some odd planes delivered, and the Revs will come in at around

-Revs $3.4/5B
-Margins of $700M = or -
-EBIT $500M = or -
-$370 to $400M +FCF range

WOW we are heading to a fantastic year. $1.28B + $2.2B + $1.95B + $3.5B = $8.93B

That's almost $9B for Fiscal 2024. The +FCF is what matters a lot more to me. This will allow them to put $300M towards the LTD in 2024/early2025 and $700M next year in 2025/early2026. This is what takes them up a couple of notches possibly 3 in ratings by the end of 2025 or more likely Q1 of 2026. Enjoy it everyone.

[Letsmakemoredol]

859, I see you are predicting EBITDA margins of 21% (420/2000).  why is it so high, any insight?  Q2 was 15.2% (335/2203) and Q1 was 16.0% (205/1281).  I'll disagree on your EBITDA # and I will say probably closer to 320M. I agree on your revenues.  I think FCF will be somewhere between 0 and +100M.  Consensus is -62M and management did say a slight cash burn, but

[BBDB859]

Hey Letsmakemore. No I'm not predicting EBITDA at 21%. I'm predicting Gross Margins at 21%. This is the reason why I don't like using the EBITDA system for calculating profits. FCF is way better. With FCF you only have interest to deal with, and everything else goes where you want, like LTD. I used Gross Margins because I like knowing what the Gross Margins are before deductions

[naissance17]

But for now the share price fall 4% on Friday....

[BBDB859]

Your opportunity to get in cheaper. They're just showing you where the new SP trend will be for a while. Fluctuating the SP from $114 and where ever they take it down to. Be smart and trade it in there. Remember though that, that window can close anytime too.

[Letsmakemoredol]

859, fair point on Spirit I guess.  The big question is does BBD want Belfast and what other options are there?  I expect this to be discussed at the Q3 ER and will be listening carefully.  Given the good results at Q2, the uncertainity over Spirit was the only reason I can come up with as to why the stock tanked after.  If you can see another reason I'd love to know. If

[BBDB859]

Hey Lets I'll try to get you up to speed, just because you're new here. Your numbers aren't wrong and neither are mine. What is happening here is a little different than a normal company's calculation of FCF. I only pay attention to the bottom line of +FCF (Positive FCF left over after everythig is paid including Interest for the year, or quarterly, depending on what I'm

[Letsmakemoredol]

859, thank you for the info, but I am very familiar with BBD and everything you said is nothing new to me.  I am well aware that BBD sold Belfast to Spirit in 2020 and that BBD builds inventory in Q1 and Q2 for the heavy delivery schedule in Q4 among many things.  I'm well aware of the tax free income BBD is entitled to, etc and many other things.  I listen to each ER call live,

[BBDB859]

Great. I'm glad that you're up to speed. I waisted all that time writting that then. You didn't make things clear. Don't be afraid to reveal some things about yourself. We all know eachother here. And I think we have a healthy respect for eachother as well. We can differ on things, but we get things done. So share some of Francis Richer's info with us please. Another poster

[Letsmakemoredol]

859, the only thing I don't know about Bombardier really as I had mentioned yearlier yesterday was the current state of the Belfast facility.  The only info I have, which is all conjecture, is that is old, outdated, very inefficient and is a money pit.  I have no idea the size of the Belfast factory either.  I have no idea about the detailed manufacture of fueselages and wings

[BBDB859]

Appearantly the Belfast employees are paid a lot cheaper than the Canadian ones are too. Even so, it maybe a good idea to repatriate the facility here. But the problem is, is that we could lose some of the tech part of it, as the Irish employees are probably the old Shorts Brothers employees with a multitude of technical talent that will be lost if we can't take them to the US or bring them

[SylviaM62]

BBDB859, I want to say Thank you for taking the time to share your knowledge with us.  This is very generous and I really appreciate it.  Darla Dirladada, Darla 

[BBDB859]

Thank you for the kind words Sylvia. Oh dirlada Darla Dirladada.