Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

Rerating is just around the corner.

[BBDB859]

There is a good possibilty that we may end up paying off another $400M of the LTD in Feb 2025. Since we now have the HON settlement in the books, it makes it easier for us to escalate the payments. The Bomber suggested early 2024, that we'll only pay $800M of the LTD in the next year. But this definitely will speed payments up. This will give us a re-rating of a couple notches higher by Moody's first, to a Ba2 in March of 2025. Then I expect that, by the end of 2025 early 2026, we'll throw another $400M to the debt which will take us to around $4.7B owing on the LTD. Then I expect another re-rating of 2 notches to Baa3 form moody's by early 2026. I foresee this re-rating frenzy to continue until we reach at the Moody's lower end of Investment Grade rating, of Baa3 in 2026. The reason why I think we'll go down 2 notches at a time is, that we will also get to NetD/E ratio in the high 2's by early 2026, coupled along with the re-payments.

If we get some wind behind our sails/wings in 2025 by getting close to $10B in Revs? You never know? We could have enough cash to settle Belfast also. Spirit may get tired of holding on to a money losing parts facility, and just agree to do the deal with us. If they hand us $250M, and we invest it in a newer Facility? Then we could control our own destiny, also maintaining our strong position of $1.7B cash on hand yearly. These operations need strong cash on hand positions, because they are heavily INVENTORY oriented. The parts facilities. the Manufacturing facilities, and the Maintenance facilities all need huge cash upfront investments yearly to operate.

So this $145/S prediction is not out of the realm. That btw this is the highest SP since 2011. It just goes to show you, what can be done with focusing on one industry, and not not being scattered everywhere.

[Jacques4444]

Totally agree, well said 859. Analyst start to target SP higher, more then 130$ few months ago, same for Desjardins Securities talking about 140$, so, base on that, I think BBD will reach 145$ in mid-2025. This JV with HON can bring new technologie and help the aftermath numbers, plus the 400M due on the settlement. Some of the present recent tech equipment only concern 13% of the planes, a lot of

[Letsmakemoredol]

859, I think the net debt/ebitda ratio will be <2.0x not the high 2's you mention.  Are you not taking cash in hand off the LTD?  Net debt should be We also have no clue if we got 400-500M in cash from HON, its all a guess at this point and wish we could find out.  Also with the large FCF in Q4 that should also largely go to LTD, I forget off the top of my head what Q4 FCF

[BBDB859]

I did Net debt to Net Earnings (net Earnings or +FCF) for 2025 it's a guess. Which +FCF ($1B) is optimistic. The way I see it is, is that we can't use the whole EBITDA for full Debt payment in a fiscal year anyways. So $3B/$1B = 3X. Which is great. People use EBITDA more commenly. But more realistically I like to use net Earnings. Using EBITDA. There should be roughly $2B in EBITDA

[Letsmakemoredol]

859, I've got net debt/EBITDA plugged around 1.75x at end of 2025 FY.  Even if Q4/24 FCF doesn't go onto LTD, it still gets positive into net debt calculations. Under T+1 rule that took effect in May, last day for trading in the 2024 tax year is December 30th