Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.A

144 for the year ?

[Tempo1]

From a CIBC report 

Aviation Week released its December business jet delivery figures with BBD delivering 144 units in 2024 versus our expectations of 152 and the company’s guidance of 150-155. We have adjusted our estimates to reflect this update. While we see a risk to BBD coming in below its 2024 EBITDA target and its 2025 free cash flow (FCF) target (we have a sub-1x book-to-bill ratio this year), as well as acknowledging the risk of U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports impacting order activity, on balance we maintain a favourable view on the company. Our positive bias is anchored by our expectations that BBD will see a step up in FCF in 2025 and beyond, its backlog is two years deep, and it is trading at an undemanding valuation. We keep our Outperformer with our price target moving down C$1 to C$126.

BBD Delivered 33 Aircraft In December: AWIN released its December business jet delivery numbers. Worldwide business jet deliveries totaled 143 versus 154 the prior year. BBD delivered the most business aircraft at 33 in December (plus one military aircraft), followed by Gulfstream with 28 deliveries, Embraer at 27 deliveries and Cirrus at 16 deliveries. BBD delivered 16 Challenger 3500s, seven Challenger 7500s, four Global 6500s, four Global 5500, one Challenger 650, and one Global 6000. Q4/24 And Full-year Deliveries:

During Q4/24, BBD delivered 55 aircraft, consisting of 25 Challenger 3500s, 14 Global 7500s, six Global 6500s, five Global 5500s, four Challenger 650s, and one Global 6000 model. This brings BBD’s full-year deliveries to 144 aircraft. BBD was previously guiding to 150- 155 deliveries in 2024 and our expectation was for 152 deliveries.

[Shamhorish]

i may be wring but their count does not include Q4 canadian deliveries on feb 6, bbd should show about (144 exported + 4 canadian delivert)148 deliverd jets there are also  3 G7500 completed still under bbd name registration ????

[Levieillard]

If it's true, we're gonna see a perfect storm. Deliveries down, orders could be down because of the tariffs threats, the tariffs themselves. Outch! But let's wait the official numbers.

[MyNameIsNobody]

Thanks for this info Tempo1. If we end up 6 deliveries short from the lower end of the 2024 150-155 target, we'll still end up close to the top end, if not over, the 8.4 to 8.6 B$ in revenues. Can't wait to see what the real numbers are going to be, especially for the FCF and EBITDA. the info I had from CCAR and FAA data was that we were 10 deliveries short, and with AWIN numbers being

[Shamhorish]

what i do not understand is why would Demosky says that bbd will acheive 150-155 jet deliveries in 2024 each time he speaks i think last time Date: Wednesday, December 4, 2024   Location: New York, NY  Bombardier Representatives: Bart Demosky, Executive Vice President & CFO, and Francis Richer de la Flche, Vice President, Financial Planning & Investor Relations* 

[Tempo1]

Yep. it is embarrassing. With Martel Bombardier always delivered what they had promised.  I remember the Q4 2019 lies whit Bellemare and others officers saying till the first week of december that al is on track with the forecasts. Finally, january 16, 2020, they disclosed preliminary results with 1 B$ missing.  They could not have missed by 1 B$ in only 4 weeks, it was a lie. ...and

[Shamhorish]

till dec 2024, they continued to confirm target 150-155 it will not be good to miss low end 1 or 2 is okay but 6 is too much UP TO NOW, there is no profit warning yet

[BePatient4now]

Sham, I hear you but I wouldn't be too worried about Martel. I think he is very credible with Bomber. What I am looking at now is the SP direction. 1 day= -2.43% 5 days= -6.39% 30 days= -10.10% 6 months= -8.25% These are real numbers that tells clearly that the SP is in a negative down formation. Of course shorts knows all about these numbers and will probably take a strong advantage of the

[Letsmakemoredol]

For now I am going to believe Bark and Martel since they have delivered on every quarterly/yearly guidance for the last 4 years.  Combined with Bart confirming #s on Dec 4th and the fact there haven't been really any deliveries in January to date which to me indicates they delivered the planes to meet guidance What is CIBC's history of PERFECT counts for the record?  I'm

[Acuras1]

I doubt very much your assumptions are wrong, these guys are way smarter than all of a sudden goofing Q4 financials and then say, opps! GLTA

[Shamhorish]

in jan 2024 there are 3 jets coomplete 2 G express and 1 G5500 1delivered in canada 2 registered for bbd (could be jets bbd took them in exchange and selling new jets to owners)! Common Name  Model Name  Serial Number  Exported To  Date Exported  Tail Bombardier BD-700

[Tempo1]

It's not the analysis opinion , it's the Aviation week count. I track them for 6 quarters and they missed by 1 or 2 twice only. I think that they didn't count the deliveries but rather that they have contacts with the manufacturers. 

[Letsmakemoredol]

Tempo, thanks for confirming.  I do note Natonal Bank is at 146 and they aren't concerned as the missed planes are delivered in the new year.  Frankly I've read dozens of these reports on counts over the last 1-2 years and none seem to be accurate.  I will agree if they did only deliver 144 planes for the year its an issue with trust from Bart and coupled with potential

[Tempo1]

My toughts is that US don't have any advantages to have a recession in the west side of the world or a spiking inflation in US. So, the tariff have to be applied with caution and/ or for a short time.  We dislike many Trump's picks but they are not simple minds. I already have sold half my position in may, june. I'm comfortable with the current 35% of the portfolio (40% at normal

[Shamhorish]

as you said " the tariff have to be applied with caution and/ or for a short time." and last time the orange guy put tariffs canadian steel, aluminium it took about 1 year and lots of nego to be removed on the other hand tariff of 25% that was applied on Germain trucj , vans are still on and was not remoed! so, it is almost impossible to tell in advance what will happen and when

[Letsmakemoredol]

correct on German light trucks in response to tarifs imposed on US chicken back in 1964.  With that said how many Ford Ranger and F150 size trucks does Germany export to the US?  I can't think of any models so its really not applicable 

[Tempo1]

One year tariff on Aluminium and steel is not enough to cause US sparking inflation or a general recession. Exactly what I said by ''with caution and/or for short time''  Two hypothesis in front of us:   Tariffs on selected goods (little chances to be applied to Bombardier) or general tariff on all goods (= recession and inflation if too long). 

[Letsmakemoredol]

agreed, or you could break "general tarffis on all goods" down to 2 possibilities - 25% in full right away or its done in incremental steps, say 5% to start and every 6 months another 5%

[aviation234]

Aviation Week has a paywall so it is tough to see prior quarters' estimates from them.    Has anyone tracked their performance vs. CCAR/FAA estimates that people use on Stockhouse vs. Cirium (used by the sellside?).    I don't know if I believe that they've only been off by 1 or 2.     Certainly they would not have contacts with the manufacturers as

[Acuras1]

Looking at fewer deliveries is somewhat surprising. However Q4 delivered a lot of Globals of which 14 are 7500s. Given nearly all metrics over the last few years have been met or exeeded I'm looking forward to Feb. 6 financials and more details. GLTA