Bombardier Inc. T.BBD.PR.B

Gulfstream

[Letsmakemoredol]

So I have a little look thru their Q3 trying to discover why their revenues are so much higher

First their services department projecting out thru the end of the year will do $3.3-$3.4B in revenues compares to BBD at ~$2.0B.  Gulfstream has >3000 planes to service while BBD states >5000 planes.  It also indicates BBD has a lot more potential to grow in that area, 50% is very conservative, but much more is very possible

Second they deliver a lot more large cabin planes than BBD.  Gulfstream delivered 76 large cabin and 13 mid size in the first 9 months of the year.  BBD is 45.7% large and 54.3% mid (I am giving % because obviously we don't have Q3 yet).

I don't think they are moving any income from their other military divisions.

[Skyisthelimite]

3000 planes=3.3B VS 5000 planes=5.5B..U$...we are not there yet but the potential is huge. And I dont need to remind you that that division has 20% margins  Gltalongs

[Letsmakemoredol]

sky, agreed.  although I don't know the make up of Gulfstream's current >3000 planes they service vs BBD's.  I have to assume its made up of larger planes vs mid size given sales and since larger planes have a higher $ service than mid I don't think you can do a linear, but I get your assumption. regardless there is substantial growth that BBD can get in the service

[BBDB859]

If my memory serves me right they were estimating around 23% to 25% for the Service margins 

[Letsmakemoredol]

859 agreed.  I tried to google it but couldn't come up with anything factual.  what is your fair guess on services revenue out to 2030? I see that services have increased 77% from 2020 to early 2024, but that was also from expansion of new service centers which I don't believe they are building anymore? They also say they can increase "diversified" revenue to make up

[BBDB859]

Hey Let's. 50% of their Revs out to 2023 includes the Services, CPO and Military as diversified income. They expect about $7B from that side and that's, if manufacturing is close to $7B annually right now at 155 diliveries.  Yes, Servicing alone is expected at around $3.5B annually, CPO is probably around $2B and Military is expected at $1.5B. I wrote a post on this topic before you

[stockitnow]

Gulfstream has over 200 aircraft used for military application.  That probably contributes to after market and service revenue as these specialized aircraft need more servicing.

[Letsmakemoredol]

stockit, Bombardier has more than 500 in service. https://www.ploughshares.ca/publications/bombardier-the-montreal-aerospace-manufacturer-refocuses-on-military-sector-exports#:~:text=To%20the%20more%20than%20500,is%20completed%20by%20foreign%20suppliers.

[Letsmakemoredol]

859, I just thought I would point out "manufacturing" includes CPO and Defense as per Q2 ER page 3, note 1.  How much it is I have no idea because its not broken out.  Just saying its not $7.0B for new planes only in 2024.