Working with Chat gpt on an ebitda projection using the Q3 results from 2021 to now to show a trend in this management team.
In Q3 2021, BCE reported an adjusted EBITDA of CAD 2.558 billion, marking a 4.2% increase from the same period in 2020. This growth was driven by increased revenues across its wireless, wireline, and media segments, as well as efficient cost management, which led to improved profit margins. BCE’s EBITDA margin rose to 43.8%, benefiting from higher service revenues and reduced operating costs due to lower product sales and fewer COVID-19-related expenses compared to the previous year .
In Q3 2022, BCE reported an adjusted EBITDA of CAD 2.588 billion, a 1.2% increase from the prior year. This growth was driven by a 7.8% increase in Bell Wireless, although there were slight declines in Bell Wireline and Bell Media EBITDA. BCE’s overall operating revenue grew by 3.2% year-over-year, reaching CAD 6.024 billion, with increased service and product revenues in wireless and residential Internet segments. However, rising costs from inflationary pressures and Hurricane Fiona had a minor impact on adjusted EBITDA margin, which dipped to 43.0% from 43.8% the previous year .
In Q3 2023, BCE reported an adjusted EBITDA of $2.667 billion, a 3.1% increase from Q3 2022. This growth reflects BCE’s focus on strategic investments in broadband networks and cost control, despite challenges in traditional media and heightened competitive pressures in the Canadian telecom market. BCE achieved notable subscriber growth, including record additions in fiber-to-the-home and a strong performance in mobile and connected device activations. The company’s digital transformation efforts, aimed at enhancing service and operational efficiency, contributed significantly to the positive EBITDA performance .
In Q3 2024, BCE reported an adjusted EBITDA of CAD $2.722 billion, reflecting a 2.1% increase over Q3 2023. This growth was primarily supported by the Bell Media and Bell Communication and Technology Services (Bell CTS) segments, which benefited from revenue in digital and streaming services, cost efficiencies, and operational adjustments. The EBITDA margin for this quarter rose to 45.6%, partly due to decreased reliance on lower-margin product sales and ongoing cost containment measures .
To project BCE’s adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025, we can examine the growth trends from Q3 2021 through Q3 2024. Here’s a summary of adjusted EBITDA figures for each year in this period:
• Q3 2021: CAD 2.558 billion, a 4.2% increase over the prior year .
• Q3 2022: CAD 2.588 billion, up 1.2% from Q3 2021 .
• Q3 2023: CAD 2.667 billion, a 3.1% increase over Q3 2022 .
• Q3 2024: CAD 2.722 billion, up 2.1% from Q3 2023 .
Observed Trends
• Average Annual Growth Rate: Over these three years, the year-over-year growth rates have ranged from 1.2% to 4.2%, with an approximate average of around 2.6%.
• Margin Growth: BCE has improved its EBITDA margin consistently, aided by cost control, digital expansion, and decreased dependency on lower-margin products. The margin grew from around 43% in 2021 to 45.6% in 2024 .
Projection for Q3 2025
Assuming BCE can maintain a moderate growth rate in the range of 2-3% and further cost efficiencies:
1. Low Estimate (2% growth):
2. Moderate Estimate (2.5% growth):
3. High Estimate (3% growth):
Based on these estimates, a reasonable projection for BCE’s Q3 2025 adjusted EBITDA would likely fall between CAD 2.78 billion and CAD 2.80 billion if BCE maintains its current growth strategies and cost-management initiatives. However, any shifts in market dynamics, such as heightened competition or changes in the advertising landscape, could impact these projections.