Post by
Tobuyornot on Feb 27, 2015 1:02pm
CIBC Bin there Dun that
BIN reported solid Q4 results. EBITDA was $139 million, up 5.2% Y/Y and versus our estimate of $138 million and consensus of $141 million. Industry fundamentals continue to show signs of improvement, with BIN noting that organic growth was up 3.4% Y/Y, with pricing up 2.3% Y/Y and volume up 1.6% Y/Y. FCF in 2014 was $221 million versus our estimate of ~$200 million. Implications Our constructive view on BIN is a function of two key points: 1) improving fundamentals in the waste cycle; and, 2) the company's internal restructuring efforts and how it is delivering on its five-year plan. While on the surface BIN's 2015 guidance may look underwhelming, this primarily reflects a weaker C$, which is a translation issue for the company (no material operating risk from currency). And taking a step back, we highlight the company has made good progress. First, U.S. Northeast Q4 margins increased to 23.3%, up from 19.7% the year prior and the highest levels since Q4/11. BIN indicated that this is a good base to use into 2015 with the continued benefit of its ongoing restructuring in the region. Second, in Q4, BIN sold its Long Island operations, which generated $90 million in revenue, for assets in Texas that generate $50 million in revenue. However, on this smaller revenue footprint, these acquisitions generate $3 million more in EBITDA, highlighting BIN's focus on ROC. And third, while 2015 FCF guidance suggests it will be down ~10% Y/Y, accounting for FX and the timing of some capex, adjusted FCF guidance is up ~20% Y/Y. While the trend in the financial targets by which we measure BIN may not be a straight linear line, it is moving in the right direction, even if the C$ is masking some of this improvement. What's Changed We have adjusted our earnings to account for BIN's guidance and our in-house FX assumptions. Our 2015 and 2016 EBITDA estimates decline to $527 million and $572 million, respectively. Our price target is unchanged at $33.50 as we continue to apply a 22x multiple to our 2016 EPS estimate. We maintain our Sector Outperformer rating.
Comment by
needwisdom on Feb 28, 2015 8:33pm
The $33.50 is us dollars?