Brookfield Infrastructure Ord Shs Class A T.BIPC

Impact of IPL and Heartland to earnings. 2022.

[mnztr]

So 2022 impact of IPL acq + hearland will be about USD 300 m I est is that reasonable?

[bttmfischer]

Could you tell us how you arrived at that $300 US estimate?

[mnztr]

Went from IPLs 2020 project update. 450-500m/year EBITDA from Heartland full year, and then I added 2019 IPL EBITDA. I took Q2 startup, so 3 quarrters of operation + full year IPL convert to USD. i,e about 400 M cad. 

[Quintessential1]

In 2019 IPL was funding HPC's construction. Using the reported EBITDA of Q2  of $235 MM along with increased commidity prices that both HPC and IPL's products command I woild conservatively put that figure closer to $1.5 B CAD Most investors forgot what a cash cow IPL was before HPC.  They and PPL are going to be reminded of what they missed out on when BIPC reports earnings

[bttmfischer]

Thanks mnztr. The one fly in the oitment is covid-19 and it variants. It could have had advers effects on HPC's construction/completion due to absenteeism of workers, as well as difficultie in transportation of materials. As a consequence we don't know when HPC will be operational, or profitable. As Brookfield is mum about the progress of the Heartland complex, we are kept in the dark. We

[mnztr]

It looks like its now late or end 2022.  for HPL.  https://www.fortsaskatchewanrecord.com/news/heartland-petrochemical-hosts-virtual-open-house

[bttmfischer]

Although the video is dated November 2021,  most of the clips were taped  before September 2021. Essentially showing nothing since Brookfield assumed control over control of constructing this vast and impressive project. So, we have no idea what progress has been made, or what milestones were arrived at.

[bttmfischer]

Based on what is shown in this "virtual open house"  Heartland is going to spend money in 2022, not making significant amounts. 

[mnztr]

Spending money is not a big issue because it just gets capitalized, but yes I agree, based on this they will start production sometime in Q3 at the earliest and *hope* to be at full production by early 2023. These are expensive, difficult and unpredictable projects. This is why many companies hesitate to undertake. Pembina bailed, and look at the insane poly prices now. But the fear is, you end up

[bttmfischer]

Totally agree, however what wolves are tough enough to go after Brookfield?