https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/canada-energy-future/2020/results/index.html
In the Evolving Scenario, natural gas production from new wells is just enough to keep pace with the declining production from existing wells in the near term. As a result, total production is level until 2025. In the longer term, rising prices and the onset of LNG exports support higher capital expenditure and production growth. This leads to more natural gas wells and production in the WCSB, with total Canadian production peaking in 2040 at 18.4 Bcf/d (521.4 106m3/d). After 2040, we assume no new additional LNG exports, and prices are too low to support adequate drilling to keep up with existing well declines. This results in production continuously decreasing to 16.8 Bcf/d (474.4 106m3/d) by 2050, as shown in Figure R.13. Without additional production to feed LNG exports, production would continuously decline over the projection period to 13.0 Bcf/d (369 106m3/d) in 2050.
In the Reference Scenario, higher gas prices and higher LNG export assumptions lead to continued increasing natural gas production in the longer term, reaching 23.5 Bcf/d (665.0 106m3/d) by 2045 and then levelling off. Reference Scenario projections are driven by higher prices, a lack of future domestic and global climate action, and higher assumed LNG exports.
In the early 2020’s, increasing Canadian natural gas demand and stable production lead to shrinking net exports.20 As domestic demand declines and production ramps up after 2025, net exports start to increase. LNG exports make up the majority of net export increases. The remaining net exports are pipeline exports to the U.S., some of which could also end up as additional LNG exports from U.S. terminals.