Birchcliff Energy Ltd T.BIR

NG Futures and weather

[llerrad5]

I know this is not a poplar outllook but it's the one I'm going with to bolster my holdings.
I simply don't beleive NG futures can go straight up from now into November and onwards. I've nevewr seen a market work that way.
I prefer a correction before Nov. and then see a very strong winter.

2) Natural Gas has seen a wild hurricane IDA driven spike trade on the very strong but small storm that threaded the needle on halting Gulf natural gas production but keeping LNG export terminals open. A new tropical system coming into the western Gulf this week has the prospects of doing the exact opposite and could cause a sudden change of fortunes for Natural Gas prices into a sizeable correction.

 

Remember, we are expecting a very mild October which should allow for a healthy injection window ahead. We will be looking to buy Natural Gas on breaks into October ahead of the historic long and cold winter our advanced climate work is forecasting.

 

[Barkis]

I'm not an expert but I think the new storm will probably not be strong enough to do any much to the LNG producers and exports on the gulf. It will however probably close in a bit more gas and oil production on the texas side of the gulf and if there are any power outages the natural gas processing plants inland (the ones that clean and prepare the raw gas) will probably go down for a while

[llerrad5]

April 2022 Natural Gas Prices Near Long Term Resistance and Overbought-This Should Lead to a Correction Heading into October-Then Expect the Moonshot Thereafter. Natural Gas Peak Monthly Demand Should Set All Time Highs this Winter Above 3.4 bcf with total Demand for the Winter some 400 mcf Above Last Year

[llerrad5]

Mised this bit: Current Trajectory for US Natural Gas in Storage is for it to Reach 3.2 BCF Down from 3.9 BCE Last Year-This would Equate to 1 BCF left in Storage at the end of the Season Assuming Another Warm Winter like Last Year. If this Winter is as Cold and Long as we are Forecasting, then this number could easily Fall below 600 BCF Which Would be An All-time Low LNG Net Exports Continue