Birchcliff Energy Ltd T.BIR

What we have been told so far by Jeff

[bossu]

About the Q2 2021;
Birchcliff had an excellent second quarter in 2021, with solid average production of 75,265 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which resulted in $90.2-million of adjusted funds flow (1), a 315-per-cent increase from Q2 2020. Our average production in July exceeded 85,000 boe/d (2) based on field estimates, and we are on track to meet our second half production guidance of 84,000 to 86,000 boe/d and our annual average production guidance of 79,000 to 81,000 boe/d. The performance of our new wells and the current strength we are seeing in oil and natural gas prices positions us for a very strong second half in 2021, with significant anticipated increases in adjusted funds flow and free funds flow (1). Birchcliff does not have , which allows all of our production to benefit from strong oil and natural gas prices
So from 75 265 BOE we way expect 84 000 to 86 000 BOE.
Q2 numbers Adjusted Funds
                  $ 90188
;Q1 2021   $ 87 820
Total         $ 178 908

AECO $ 3,30 CDN average
Average Dawn 4,08 US

Budget for 2021   $ 500 M
Ajusted funds flow needed for the H2     $ 321 M

Say + 40 % in the Q3 $126 M   (+40% from the Q2)
Say 100 % in the Q4 $ 175M     ( +100 % from the Q2 )
 total     for 2021       $  301 

Q3 results soon to be published but Q4 will be the real game changer !

Of course a ball park figure .....!

[TouchDown12]

Good preliminary work on the possibilities of Q3 and Q4. I think Jeff will lean into Q4 discussion on Q3 report so we maybe able to 'interperet' some content with your formula. I think we are all interested in how fast debt is dropping and I how BIR will give us a new target this week for Dec. 31/21. Then we can play it out into Q1 and Q2 2022 (when we might be in reach of a "nil"

[bossu]

TouchDown12, I like your comment and this is exactely was I wanted to express... Preliminary and what Jeff will have to add as reel fact and what we may expect in the coming quarters. First Q3 2021 and projection for the Q4 and forecast for 2022 .

[TouchDown12]

Keep up the good work Bossu. TD12

[barneyj44]

Thanks for posting. Dividend Increase? Either way Jeff gets two thumbs up for his non hedging strategy.

[PlutusofCrete]

I say no to the divy...just pay down debt and redeem pref shares.  Save the divy for 2023. Once debt is paid off I expect Jeff will announce his retirement and hand over the CEO role to the current COO. 

[barneyj44]

Makes sense Plutus, can never go wrong cleaning up the balance sheet. Jeff doesn’t want to be beholden to the Bankersters if he can help it.

[Burgersandfries]

I agree debt and preferred's first divi maybe third quarter 2023 unless numbers are crazy better than we think. Bankers did force him to hedge when gas was in the toilet no reason for those pirates to do it now. Actually if hedge some at $5.50 I would be good with that.