Birchcliff Energy Ltd T.BIR

Nat Gas is climbing

[Grandcentral]

GLTA

[PlutusofCrete]

Hope it lasts. 

[Grandcentral]

It will. Florida is near freezing, and the cold is rolling in the west later this week. Europe is desperate, and the US can't sell it fast enough. We have several months of heavy consumption ahead of us. GLTA

[barneyj44]

Birchcliff use to rise with Natural Gas increasing. Not these days. Market is telling Mr. Tonken raise the dividend , pay off debt and cutback on share repurchases. At least that's how I see it.

[Burgersandfries]

Will Jeff consider a hedge to get us through to end of 2022 if you could hedge at $4.25 say for half production or all of it ...would you do it if  you knew it guaranteed debt free start of 2023....I think I would I don't see how sustained price above $4.25 can happen for all of 2022. 

[barneyj44]

If I was a betting man (which I am) I don’t think he will hedge. I’m very surprised that banks didn’t require the company to hedge over the last few years what with the debt we were carrying. Others the likes of Painted Pony were forced to sell at bargain basement prices. Being unhedged has been great for Birchcliff.

[Barkis]

The way I see it there could be some continued  selling of the last of Febuary gas contract around this point and it could break down a bit if the participants  decide to trade the  moderate  warming around the beggining of the new month. The cold in the east is due to a so called elongated or wobbly Polar Vortex. There looks to  be one more of these "elongations

[Barkis]

Note: The 2400 BCF number I quoted from Celsius Energy is the estimated Real Time figure  they calculate and display hourly. The EIA provides a weekly nymber that is more commonly used. https://www.celsiusenergy.net/ https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

[Barkis]

From EIA - US Natural Gas Overview (up to 2200) Why 1500 BCF end of season storage is critical now? - Look at graph below. US is a top exporter. now.  They have to show the world they can do it consistently. In the past 1500bcf would be considered low end of season Why is this so important ? https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/us-europe-prepare-plan-for-possible-russian

[Barkis]

Oops - was trying to insert image - didn't work Here is the link instead https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec4_2.pdf