Birchcliff Energy Ltd T.BIR

North America may see natural gas prices follow global ones

[PlutusofCrete]

Is $15 HH on the horizon? 

https://boereport.com/2022/05/17/column-north-america-may-see-natural-gas-prices-follow-global-ones-a-frightening-taste-of-the-agony-developing-countries-are-facing/

If you think things are tough now, they will be unimaginable if North American gas prices get to even half of global levels. At $15/mmbtu or GJ, businesses start to close. Heating costs become paralyzing. These fuel costs aren’t “optional” in the sense that if gasoline prices get too high, we don’t take a 6-hour road trip.

Consider the comment in the BOE Report the other day from the head of the Western Equipment Dealers Association trade group, stating that “last winter’s heating bills were unsustainable.” Yikes, who’s gonna tell him. Last winter Henry Hub prices averaged $4.56 US/mmbtu. Forward prices for next winter are $7.83. The cost squeeze is going to be unbearable for many businesses.

With natural gas, whether for industrial or residential purposes, scaling back has serious consequences, either in industrial output or in the temperature of your home.

Global fuel shortages don’t always show up explicitly in lines at gas stations. They can show up quietly and more deadly in the form of shuttered businesses, unliveable utility bills, and soaring inflation for anything that relies on natural gas as an input. The potential problems are jaw-dropping in North America, and simply unthinkable in the developing world.

The divest fossil fuels campaign is bearing ghastly fruit. There will be nowhere to hide.

[revxm]

Apr. thru July 2008, i was Supervising gas well drilling rigs, companies couldnt get it out of the ground fast enough....price was over $12 that year. it is very likely we will see it again.

[Burgersandfries]

I think you can drill like crazy doesn't mean you can process it I think there are limitations on infrastructure. Can anyone comment on that.

[revxm]

There is limitations for sure on infrastucture but we are no where near capacity of the infrastructure, especially in the case with Birchcliff, they have all the infrastructure they need (fully owned by Birchcliff) as well they are tied directly into the Aeco line (i think its the Aeco, i could be wrong on that but they are tied into some alberta line directly with contracts to supply a given

[Barkis]

I figure we should find out if that is in the cards by end of June or so. Mid-summer people should start to get real nervousif we are still sitting on a 300 BCF YOY deficit coupled with all that is happening. I saw one analysis predicting gas storage will end of injection season well below 3 TCF. If the deisel shortage comes to be this summer then there will be a big push to  use alternate

[Barkis]

Correction: The monetary value of the ~ 100 bcf going into US natural gas storage each week is US800M not $80M. If liquid fuels do get in short supply I think natural gas - NG vehicles and electrics  are going to get the call to make up some of the difference - natural gas is still very cheap in when compared to deisel/gasoline and can go much higher before it's costs becomes a major