Birchcliff Energy Ltd T.BIR

Nat gas this morning....

[bossu]

Nat gas at $ 9,60 this morning...
A level not seen since 2008 for a short period.

Bir to the roof at the Q2 results and not hedged.

[cashworx31]

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[Burgersandfries]

I'm surprised given the export facilities are still not back up and running...is this air conditioning or just a pure lack of supply going into winter. Birchcliff unhedged and with only a small percentage going to aeco must be rolling in cash

[TouchDown12]

Yeh B&F - it's a DOUBLE, DOUBLE - US NG Pricing PLUS FX at 1.28 USD/CDN.... Revenue in US - Expenses in CDN....man that is sweet. TD12

[PlutusofCrete]

This situation is very good when it comes to managing any inflationary pressures to the business (i.e. wages, materials and equipment).  TouchDown12 (354) User Actions   July 26, 2022 - 10:43 AM 35 Reads Post# 34850913 RE:RE:Nat gas this morning.... Yeh B&F - it's a DOUBLE

[Burgersandfries]

 I wish I understood the market better...what happens when the US starts shipping gas to Europe again?? Will gas be over 10 bucks HH this fall winter? I know there's a recession but cooling heating and energy requirements don't drop. I can see people driving a little less and oil coming off somewhat. Any thoughts out there??

[TouchDown12]

IMO - big risk that NA NG spikes with any Texas (Feb. 2020) event.... or Hurricane before winter season (now till Mid Nov.). Freeport back on p/t in October. Other LNG facilities shipping more and more outside of Freeport... there is not much new supply that can come on-line before next spring in CDA and US - so the risks are to the upside unless winter is the warmest on record (not likely). TD12

[robert41]

If gas can stay in the 9's in the US until Xmas birchcliff should be in a golden position far better than those selling the bulk of their gas thru aeco. Debt free cash on the books. Can these companies get to a position where the divi is actually safe long term? I'm optimistic!

[GuidoSan1]

Hi 41, have to comment on the continued diatribe concerning being unhedged, if you think about it there is a case for looking at being unhedged both ways. For example when summer NG demand is low (and I will restate the EIA is lying to everyone and fudging the current numbers IMO) does anyone really believe the companies unhedged and not going thru AECO or HH are the first go to's when as is

[AboveBoard]

Yep.  There is a lot of BS happening.  It is difficult to gauge as to "when" $hit will hit the fan.  In the US, the midterms are coming..  will the FED try not to push interest rates too much in order to favour the dems?  Or will rates continue to be pushed up?  Manipulation is occurring imo.  Is recession priced in the market?  https

[GuidoSan1]

Hi B&F, for what it's worth i will offer the 2 cent reply lol, cause who really knows no one. So my long time private hedge fund buddy and to some extent his hedge fund peers as well as my small group all lean to the assumption that the EIA (remember really a current extention of the Biden Admin that are lying thru their collective teeth the past while and are likely fudging injection

[AboveBoard]

Nouriel Roubini Wall Street’s ‘Dr. Doom’ says you’re ‘delusional’ if you think the coming recession will be short and shallow – Fortune https://fortune.com/2022/07/25/recession-coming-nouriel-roubini-dr-doom-delusional-if-you-think-it-will-be-short-shallow/ https://dmartpreneur.com/famed-economist-nicknamed-dr-doom-predicts-severe-recession-says-anyone-thinking-otherwise-is-delusional/

[Burgersandfries]

Thanks GS appreciate your insight and actually stating your position we'll see what happens. I like to keep a position just given BiR and others reducing their debt and soon to be debt free with positive cash flow these companies have never been more risk free as even if supply went up and prices to 4.50 or 5  they will still be debt free and building cash. Anyway just my simple out look.