Birchcliff Energy Ltd T.BIR

My take on BIR

[EnergyWatcher55]

I've been looking at BIR for a while and its story seems compelling such as it doesnt hedge, it sells the vast majority of its nat gas at higher prices than AESO, it owns its infrastructure (hence-why it doesnt hedge), and its close to zero debt. 2023 looks to be more promising since BIR has stated it would have zero debt and its dividend would increasedto 20 cents/Q from 2 cents/Q. However, the dividend is assuming higher than average oil prices (~$70 which can easily crater to sub $50), and somewhat reasonble nat gas prices (~$3 range). Offering a special dividend wasn't as great an idea as some on this board thought-hence the drop in price. BIR should have used that $55M to eliminate the debt. Where does it go from here? When you have zero debt, you become a take over target. So, a higher dividend in 2023 might not last long IMHO. Good luck to all.

[energee]

BIR churns along unhedged.  Some risk there for sure. BIR does have great property synergy with Advantage (AAV) assets but I am challenged to understand why either would do an M&A deal unless one of the teams wanted to retire and stare at the beach.  If BIR is ever in sale mode (which is possible, because teeth are long there) their SP is elevated now for sure. I own AAV, not BIR,

[marketsense]

Interesting.  Energy watcher didn't like hiking the dividend.  Should have used it to eminate debt then goes on to say if they eiliminate all debt,  they become a takeover target so the dividend might not last long anyway. I'm sorry but I find that very confusing.  Which is it?  Does he want the debt eliminated or doesn't he?  It makes no sense to

[Burgersandfries]

Agreed! Debt Is gone in a few months regardless of the divi bonus they are making so much cash it's all a nothin burger and a bit of an early gift for long term shareholders lots of posters just need throw stones no matter how good things are. 

[PlutusofCrete]

I say thanks for the Black Friday money! I'm looking forward to the future variable and fixed dividends that are coming our way. The unhedged strategy has given BIR the flexibility to eliminate debt, redeem prefs, do small buybacks through the last two years to ensure no shareholder dilution from company options, and now finally after the long wait reward us long-term shareholders. I've

[bossu]

''Glad to see that you are happy with the money in your pocket'' I share your view ! I also have been in Bir probably longer than you but the difference is the fact that I have been avtive in buying/selling frequently probably for 6 years or so and buying in the $ 1,00 range early in 2020 to average down in a couple of account and selling some all along 2021 but making sure to