Birchcliff Energy Ltd T.BIR

EIA forecast FY23 Henry Hub price to average $5.46

[PlutusofCrete]

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=54599

They believe prices will decline after the spring due to rising production levels. 

So what is the exit strategy on BIR...sell in the peak of the Winter or hold long and wait until 2025 LNG Canada all the while collecting a divy? Govt taxation is a risk through all of this and a potential conservative win in the 2025 federal election could also be a tailwind. There is so much to consider. 

I tend to get burned with the sell and buy back lower approach. Have been holding BIR since 2017 and glad I have not been selling and buying as I probably would have missed the big run up. 

I am still a believer in $15-$20 price target but wonder how long will it take to see this price reached. 

Thoughts team?

[HighOctane89]

There's a lot of effort being put in trying desperately to talk prices down , seems every talkinghead can see the future clearly . Reality says depending on the length and severity of this winter , EU demand and the length of spring before the heat shows up are all wild cards in this game . Last summer had draws on gas storage from June to early Sept due to cooling and electricity demand

[AboveBoard]

valid points.  Well done.  I still stand by my prediction of $3 to $5.50 ng gas trading at some point. If my memory serves me correct(don't take my word), birch used $3.50 ng and $70 oil for healthy future divs.  That could have changed or my memory may be incorrect.    Now, if the feds decide to make a grab or some unforeseen event occurs then who knows.  

[Billybabin61]

Hunker down and have a beer, better days ahead. Look at EPS, Cash Flow and debt level. Plus a potential takeout.

[HighOctane89]

Oddly enough you need to drill to increase production and according to Baker-Hughes that ain't happening . US nat gas prices are falling because there won't be a rail strike but that tune will change soon enough with winter temperatures . That aside , this stock's trading has never made sense to me and is manipulated more than I care to be involved in . 

[Billybabin61]

Actually the biggest determining factor in NG is weather short term anyway besides supply to the market. Main thing is to invest in management and by all accounts BIR has that. I think BIR will be higher in the coming months so sticking with it. There are not many better places to be in energy given the coming bump in the dividend.