Birchcliff Energy Ltd T.BIR

Question

[gonatgasgo]

This stock puzzles me.  I am trying to understand why it keeps going down, despite natural gas prices moving up.

The number of shares outstadanding has stayed stable over the last 4 years or so.
Production is flat, maybe slightly up next year
Adjusted fund flows in 2023 of $855M vs $1,020M in 2022
Free Fund Flows of $600M in 2023 vs $660M in 2022
Hedging is not the problem

I am not sure if these are good enough reasons.

A number of institutional investors have completely sold their positions in 2022.  I am trying to find out in which quarters to see if it is in Q4, 2022.

Anybody can shed some light as to what is happening that is not liked by the market?

Thanks for your help.

[sweetooth2]

In my opinion this stock was pushed over the $10.00 range when natural gas over $8.00 Gass price is now much lower and will continue to drop drastically in 2023.

[HighOctane89]

I don't buy that sweetooth , BIR will be paying a 9% dividend which is far above most other sustainable dividends . I have watched this stock for years and am quite unimpressed with the marketmaker here . Whomever it is , I have never seen a marketmaker actively trade against the company and its shareholders . I would expect the lack of liquidity is being used by the marketmaker to induce

[HighOctane89]

One more point , tomorrow would be ex-dividend date . Your marketmaker is probably taking advantage of the fact most will hold for the 2 cents while they lose 75 cents per share

[Billybabin61]

So why are you making comments on companies you claim you don't own or wouldn't buy, nothing better to do?

[HighOctane89]

As I said , I have this on my watch list . No matter how bad my day goes I can always look at BIR and say "at least I don't own that" . Sorry if I offended you but you did ask .

[Billybabin61]

No offence taken. My take on BIR is that it is caught up like all of the other O&G comapnies presently because of the volatility of the commodities. Almost all companies who produce gas end up producing some liquids as well, whether it is pure oil or it is NGL's . Historically, a small % of liquids produced provides a much larger relative % of the company's revenues and cash

[gonatgasgo]

Thank you Billy

[HighOctane89]

Well best of luck , I do hope it works out for you