Birchcliff Energy Ltd T.BIR

Birchcliff sell-off is opportunity

[PlutusofCrete]

Michael Blair

Dec 20, 2022

15

8

 

Birchcliff Energy (BIR) has sold off in recent weeks and now trades at CAD$9.10 with a CAD$0.80 dividend rate planned for 2023 - at today’s price an 8.8% yield.

https://michaela34.substack.com/p/birchcliff-sell-off-is-opportunity?utm_source=twitter&sd=pf

Michael Blair

Dec 20, 2022

15

8

 

Birchcliff Energy (BIR) has sold off in recent weeks and now trades at CAD$9.10 with a CAD$0.80 dividend rate planned for 2023 - at today’s price an 8.8% yield.

Birchcliff has 266 million shares outstanding. I value Birchcliff common equity at ~CAD$5 billion (a higher than average multiple of a bit more than five times EBITDA plus cash balance) putting my valuation of BIR.TO shares in the CAD$18 to $20 range, more than double the current price.

[AboveBoard]

Prices have changed since your article.  From your article, the following assumptions... My CAD$32.00 netback is based on the following assumptions (all in Canadian dollars: $6.00 Natural gas price per gigajoule (77% of output) $90.00 oil & liquids (23% of output) $3.60 operating costs  $5.40 transportation (diversified marketing to Dawn, AECO, Alliance and a basis hedge to

[PlutusofCrete]

Dave Steinmoeller Jan 5 Hi Michael, I added BIR today. I’m curious how your model values the company at todays lower commodity prices? Thanks for all your work. ReplyCollapse    

[AboveBoard]

  thanks for the post. more,from the article... The market seems to be discounting a deep and persistent recession which is a non-trivial risk, but the supply-demand picture suggests it will not tank natural gas prices as much as is implied by the market today.   james miningstocksguide.com

[PlutusofCrete]

Thanks for the post - $3 AECO gas and $70 WTI oil -  0.80 divy is safe at these numbers.  It has been posted many times and publicy said by Jeff.  So far Jeff has done exactly what he said he was going to do. On January 18, we will find out what his next steps are - he has lots of options at play. 

[robert41]

Thx plutos for digging this up Appreciate your efforts.