Birchcliff Energy Ltd T.BIR

Intervention by Gov't & their cohorts

[mrmomo]

This is just a follow up to Goldenrivit's comments and some additional commentary. As most of you folks know by now, NG prics have been in a complete free fall since hiting that $10 high earlier this year. What should be taken away from this, is that this isn't by normal market influences or economic factors like supply & demand. For which the latter has totally outstriped the former for some time, especially since Rssian gas has beem blacklisted. This is infact by design & by massive intervention by several Western led Gov'ts and their institutional associates.

This is being done on several different levels, apart from the obvious restrictions placed on exported Russian product. This strategy also includes complex financial instruments that's preventing NG prices (and oil! but mostly targetting NG) to rise in a normal setting and for it to get pummeled to where it is now. ALL OF IT by "intelligent design" lol and not to be mistaken or confused by anyting discussion relaiting to the creation of the universe LOL. This was all well thoughtout. planned & excercised by the powers that be to prevent the complete collapse of Europe as we know it.  Because if NG was going to remain anywhere close to $10 much longer, that's exactly what would have happened. Forget about where rampant inflation was going to go IF NG & oil prices were left to normal market devices, EU bankruptcy would have been imminent.

Now, i know what most of you folks are thinking. It's not fair! Yeah, i know but that's the reality & truth. In most cases you cannot fight against a massive wave of sentiment & limitless money and go against the flow, especially in this case. THEY wanted NG prices around $3 in the short term and that's exactly where they've gone. Now i don't expect them to remain at these ridiculous levels not in this current environment and not with the demand that;s out there. But as in most cases, even with the massive influnece & intervention, the financial markets tend to over exxagerate the intended results.

So where does this leave heavy gassers like Birch & others? Well, they're in a tough spot and even worse for those that haven't hedged some production when prices were at favorable levels to do so. My guess is that the smart, well managed entities won't panic & crater by falling into the same deadly traps as in the past, by attempting to hedge ANY production at these abysmal prices. The weaker ones, with mediocre mgmt who haven't learned their lessons probably will repeat the same mistkes as in 2020. Hopefully for Birch, they won't fall into that group.  Birch still has options and a better alternative would be to reduce their exposure to NG by incresing their oily output. And this could be done by several means. The most efficient being by M&A.

In additon and going back to a crucial point a made in the past, all these small to mid cap Canadian ep's who've installed a generous (and now unviable!) divvy or have implemented share buybacks (which most cannot afford now!), all of them are in a heap of trouble IF NG pricing doesn't go back around $5. And i've made my points CLEAR WHY i beleive they will NOT go there anytime soon and will continue to linger around $3. I will also not be surprised to see many if not all of these Canadian producers, to scale back or cancel alltoether any share buybacks announced over the past year and probably cut their divvy payouts soon to. So don't be caught off guard if that's exactly what happens, because most can't afford to do it anymore.

My prediction......NG pricing has fallen way to much way to fast by intervening entities and those in- the-know that took advangtage. Especailly when compared to WTI oil reaction. gGiven the current global macro economics & current events, NG should recover somewhat in the $3-$4 range over the next few months. The problem though, is that most need $5 NG, especially the smaller Canadians ep's, to keep all their goodies intact and for things to continue running smoothly.

GLTA

[sclarda]

Get a grip buddy. Oil and gas prices go up and down all the time. This is because of supply and demand, speculation  and fear such as last year with Ukraine and Russia. High prices lead to more production and less demand so prices drop causing lower production and more demand causing prices to go up again.  Oil and gas markets have always been volatile and likely always will be. Oil and

[PonyBoyOutsider]

Appreciate both these comments, but, no these price swings are not typical supply/demand type issues, this is market manipulation absolutely, by the powers that be. Who truly knows what the reasoning, I suspect majors in the US (LNG majors) are going to keep the industry extra volatile while long term International contracts (multi decade contracts) are being secured. (Freeport down time isn't

[marlinbait]

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