Birchcliff Energy Ltd T.BIR

Listen to SMART folks......NOT

[mrmomo]

Foolishly, bad investors.......AND you will always do well & come out ontop in your investment decisions. This VERY DIRE situation with Birch has been neatly Telegrpahed to you for months by yours truly....MrMomo. And the choice is YOURS whether you want to listen to and believe dubious folks or awful investors.....like you know who.....on these boards...OR .....listen to very capable, VERY XP'd folks like me.....

Now for another accuate assessment of Birch's DIRE situattion.......and WHERE i think this will eventually go....listen carefully.....OR you can continue to listen to guys named after a doppy Disney pooch or irrelevant planet. YOU CHOICE......!

So the first question to be asked here is WTH is Birch mgmt doing? Because it seems they're "purposely" walking, headed of a literal CLIFF ....and about to fall right off. Is this just plain old bad mgmt OR is there an actual purpose to this madness? And thinking about it, i think it's a combination of both........just plain ole stubbornness & bad stewardship, making bad bets and failing ot acknowlwdge them AND being done for an ultimate purpose. Why? Because no one in their right mind commits financial suicide like this.......without some viable, intentded purpose in the end......or some endgame.

I say this becasue ANY smartly managed O&G operator under the direction of Xp'd mgmt would have already takenb care of the "low hanging" fruit.....so to speak......to cut as much their UNNEEDED EXPENSES in order for suvivability for the long term.....and to "wait out" these difficult periods. And this first thing ANY good mgmt would do......is immedaitely CUT that damn achilles heal of a costly divvy, they do need or afford to pay either......under these "difficult" circumstances. It's killing the company internally like a very bad agressive cancer....and will make the evntually implode if they do not!

So WHY.....you ask....are they still keeping it? There can only be two reasons, either these guys are awful at what they do, meaning manage and havenlt leanrned a damn thing OR they are keeping it because....like any insane person who's about to commint.....suicide or financial suicide in this case.....they have nothing to lose and they already have an exit plan in the background. So why not just pay out as much as they can to s/h before they eventually bow out. These are the only two things that make sense here.....and nothing esle does!

So with this in mind, i'll go rigth ahead and predict that Birch will not be around much longer, in it's current form and will most likely sellout to some larger entity by eeither end of year or at the latest before the 2nd half of 2024. And all the pieces of this crazy puzzle are starting to come togther here to show a pretty accurate picture. And i don't bleieve this will be a bad thing for invetors in the lnger term..... as long as they don't sellout to Canadian UnNatural. Because if it's CNQ, then all bets are ooff on how low this could be sold or how desperate mgmt is to GTHO.

As for the ER itself, it's self explanatory and more or less what  i expected. And again, i was deadly accurate on the everything & the numbers came in as i said they would. Hopefully for s/h sake this will be all over when mgmt finally sellout to a better operator, someone like Advantage, Arc, Whitecap, Paramount, & Nuvista who are all possible suitors here. Even a merger with Kelt will be a better option that the Status Quo, as it would immedaitely increase Birch's value by at least 30%. ......because the alternative IF i'm completely DEAD WRONG on all this.......is a very dismal outsome where the Status Quo remains, the bad mgmt remains and Birch's stock slowly bleeds to nothing.....IF NG pricing doesnt reverse soon.......accumalating dent to levels not seen since 2020......ans eventually being forced to sell for literal peanuts as Painted Pony was back then.

So you better get on yor knees and start praying to Jesus that i'll be right on target again on here....

For now anyone interested in buying think this is cheap......it's not cheap....it's reflectiing it's dire situation. BUT if you have money to waste & gamble, betting on a potential TO, this could go for anywhere from $7 to about $9......depending on WHO buys them. So yes.... it's still a risky bet to make......because even though the risk is somewhat mitigated at these levels, the opportunity costs is what will kill you in the end..... if the buyer/acuirer is NOT who you prefer it be....!

If anyone has aNY questions or doubts..........i'll try to answer them...


GLTA

[robert41]

Well thats hilarious I said exactly what you said and I did it in 5 simple lines except for they buyout part which is certainly possible.. interesting to see what the shorts do with Bir it has one of the biggest percentage short positions in the sector. Do they double down or cover?

[JWING17]

momo needs 5 paragraphs of patting himself on the back. Imagine this gal at a party? It would be the last one! ROFL at this prize.