Post by
TouchDown12 on Nov 15, 2023 2:47pm
BIR is now a bet on NYMEX Spot NG Pricing; until it is sold.
Been a long term BIR holder (pre-2020). Believe in Jeff and Co.; however, in looking forward and how BIR 'wins' with it's present gameplan, essentialy BIR is now an unhedged bet on NG. Not much strategy - just letting the $$ NG pricing come to them (thus their believe in higher NG pricing). I am buying today (again) b/c i do believe they are correct (with LNG around the corner, etc.). The rub is 'how much are they correct?'. I don't know the answer to that yet but have enough shares of other NG players that have either hedged or are growing production or aquiring other players production to balance out the bet Jeff is making and what BIR represents in my book. Give him some credit - that is a fantastic dividend to get Quarterly on spot NG; but 2023 is the last year it can be paid out of debt. They have to at least make some profit after CAPEX and DIV - otherwise it isn't really a functional biz case. So i exit in 2024 unless they can make $$ or they get sold. GLTA TD12
Comment by
checkup on Nov 15, 2023 3:09pm
I like BIR here and I like the unhedged plan too. It is expensive to hedge and it does not take away all the risk. After 2023 dividend, I would quess they will go the special dividend route making payments when it is most reasonable. They make decent money with Henry Hub at $3.25+. US bucks. GLA