According to projections at Celsius Energy inventories
should drop below the 5 year average aroound end of
January - See four week withdrawl estimations
This is longer than I had expected but it does look like
it will happen this winter.
Note: Celsius have been wrong in the past. They are probably
not taking into account
freeze-offs of wells and the
extent and
duration of the upcoming cold weather. Watch your
favorite extended range weather forecaster. There is already talk of
the cold reloading and coming back the latter half of Jan.
We still have Feb and Mar. to deal with also. After that it looks
like a relentless string of North America LNG facilities coming
on-line and ramping up and after that summerA/C demand. Any hint
of natural gas inventories not being on track to meet the end of
2025 injection season threshold of around 3700 BCF (at least should
lead to consistently high gas prices) escpecially since the acceptable
winter inventory has not keep pace with the greatly incresed natural
gas demand in North America the past few years.
Going below the 5 year average on inventories seems to be
a catalyst for natural gas markets. The last time it happened
was in the begging of Feb 2022. Natural gas prices trippled between
then and Jul 2022 (over 6 months).
I will monitor the Celsius Energy updates and try to post them
here occasionly (thru the winter). If they are wrong on this we can
take note (in a few weeks) on how accurate thier projections are
and you can take that into account when evaluating thier site
for reliabilty.
Here is the link to Celsius Energy
https://www.celsiusenergy.net/ Let's see if they are worth thier salt over the next few weeks