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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Birchcliff Energy Ltd T.BIR

Alternate Symbol(s):  BIREF

Birchcliff Energy Ltd. is a Canada-based intermediate oil and natural gas company. The Company is engaged in the exploration for and the development, production and acquisition of oil and gas reserves in Western Canada. The Company’s operations are focused on the Montney/Doig Resource Play in Alberta. Its operations are concentrated in the Peace River Arch area of Alberta. The Company has a 100... see more

TSX:BIR - Post Discussion

Birchcliff Energy Ltd > Gas Well Freeze Offs - Historical Reference
View:
Post by greyowl on Jan 10, 2025 11:20pm

Gas Well Freeze Offs - Historical Reference

EIA Link to US Dry Gas Production By Month

Note  Typical for cold spells can cause a cumulative drop in production
of about 300bf to 500 bcf over the course of a month- see dips on graph.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9070us2m.htm

Also Note: US gas production is not growing anymore  and new
LNG plants coming online will require an additional 5 BCF/day of
production per year for the next 2-3 years (i.e. US will have to up production to
over 115 bcf/day by 2027) just to supply the new LNG plants).

The current dip in production should start showing up in the EIA
weekly gas storge numbers going forward. 

Continued cold over the next 2-3 weeks will should put inventoey
levels well below the 5 year average by month end. My guess is that
the real real-time inventory (when taking into account freeze offs)
will be below the 5 year average sometime early next week.

BIrchliff gets Henry Hub and Dawn pricing for most of it's gas.
(less a US buck or so).

They produce about 130 BCF of gas per year.

Comment by Maxmoe on Jan 11, 2025 8:49pm
I look forward to your analysis unfolding. May the force and cold front be with you. 
Comment by Oldnagger on Jan 12, 2025 8:59am
Even colder weather coming for second half January https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-frigid-arctic-cold-blast-winter-storm-forecast-canada-united-states-mk/
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