Why is Russian President Putin deploying troops near Ukraine? Ukrainian and Western politicians have been puzzling over this for days. And they warn Russia almost daily not to cross its own borders.
In fact, the number of armed forces is larger than at any time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, which led to the annexation of Crimea and the establishment of the internationally unrecognised separatist republics in the Donbass. Russian and Western military experts speak of more than 70,000 soldiers that Moscow's defence ministry has assembled near the southern Russian city of Voronezh and in Crimea. From all over the country, the armed forces are transporting tanks, transport vehicles, howitzers and rocket launchers on freight wagons to the borders. The troops come from Siberia and central Russia, from the Baltic Sea and from the city of Pskov, home to the 76th Airborne Guards Division, which fought in Ukraine's Donbass back in 2014. It is a mobilisation across ten time zones, just as if Russia were facing a major war. Why? In Russia, observers discuss five conceivable scenarios.
The first scenario is based on political calculations. According to this scenario, the Russian president wants to intimidate the government in Kiev because it is taking action against pro-Russian parties and the Ukrainian oligarch and Putin friend Viktor Medvedchuk. Medvedchuk's television stations have been shut down and his assets have been frozen. Support for Medvedchuk and other friends of Putin in Ukraine could be behind the operation. However, that would require quite a lot of soldiers on the road.
The second scenario assumes that Russia wants to force Ukraine to deliver water to parched Crimea again. The government in Kiev has cut off the supply through the North Crimean Canal, and Russia is demanding that the canal be put back into operation. For a water offensive, however, the deployment of troops near Voronezh, far more than 1000 kilometres away, makes little sense. So water is not enough of an explanation either.
The third scenario assumes that Russia wants to occupy the Donbass. The larger part of the Donbass is already controlled by pro-Russian separatists. Although they depend on Russia, they repeatedly act on their own authority. The stationing of soldiers both in the north near Voronezh and in the south in Crimea speaks for a planned occupation. Russian troops could thus take the Ukrainian Donbass from two directions and ultimately dominate the region. With such an invasion, Putin could not only unleash national sentiments at home, but he would also shake independent Ukraine as a whole.
The fourth scenario outlines the possible conquest of large Ukrainian cities such as Kharkiv near the Russian border. Voronezh is a good 300 kilometres from Kharkiv. With such a strike, Ukraine's viability as a state would be threatened. This would be a war for the whole, for which Russia would need considerably more troops, because unlike the majority Russian-speaking population in Crimea in 2014, Russian soldiers would not be welcome at all in large Ukrainian cities.
The fifth scenario assumes that Russia wants to increase psychological pressure on the West. Ukraine is not part of Nato. But the West supports Ukraine's development and independence with money, armaments and a free trade agreement. Putin is just showing Europe and the USA once again that in case of doubt he would have full dominance over escalation. The implied pincer grip of Russian troops in Crimea and near Voronezh is also suitable for this demonstration.
https://www.zeit.de/2021/16/ukraine-russland-wladimir-putin-unabhaengigkeit-streitkraefte