Post by
Flush11 on May 19, 2022 1:08pm
valuation
Compare this company to Yangarra which I also own. Yangarra is estimating cash flow of about 1.80 per share and assumes an average production increase of about 25% and they are spending 105 million to get there - leaving about 60 million in free cash flow or around 70 cents on a 3.00 stock. All unhedged but based on drilling success. Relative debt levels are higher although absolute debt is lower. Their presentation forecasts a .8 x 1 debt to cash flow ratio. Free cash yield is 25%.
BNE has current production levels at or above their forecast for the year, 1000 boe/d behind pipe and still has an active drilling program in Q2 adding production. Free cash flow at strip is forecast at 165 million using their production assumptions or 5.00 per share on an 11.00 stock for a free cash yield of 45%.
both are growing by roughly the same amount year over year - slight edge to YGR but that was also based on a few production misses last year. BNE is oilier - also known as more profitable.
YGR has their abandonment liablilities in perfect shape. BNE has a ways to go.
comparing the two cheapies - BNE should double based on current numbers. Both are stupidly cheap.
Comment by
bandit69 on May 19, 2022 1:25pm
Agreed. Frustratingly slow though. Either that or I am impatient. lol
Comment by
churchofnutsacc on May 19, 2022 6:37pm
Headwater does 12,400 boe/d and is valued at $1.6 billion Bonterra does 13,200 boe/d and is valued at $389 million Headwater is debt free.