Hey Kav.
The guys at hfi have done a reasonable job of predicting crude oil builds and draws just by following net exports in the US. They seem to come close to the EIA numbers a week in advance. My comments about inventories last post were not a negative opinion on crude prices. Just thought it was interesting that they were calling inventory directions so well.
There is lots of murky data and more agenda based news releases than I have ever seen right now. Russian exports are finally dropping, Chinese imports are finally increasing. Shale production still solid in the Permian. A billion conflicting indicators plus all the weird politics.
VLCC's carry about 2 million barrels so an extra arrival on the import side or an extra departure on the export side blows out the weekly numbers.
Interpretation of data in both directions with raging bulls and screaming Cassandras makes me wonder how much is Driven by trading intead of Reacting to it. Trafigura's 6 billion dollar crude trading profit is bizarrely large. Might be a pattern there.
The stock market is telling me that I am wrong to be bullish. My instinct tells me that Nuttall has the inventory call correct. Although really it is a few other people I follow that have the same conclusion.
July should be an enormously bullish month if the inventory thesis is correct. ... with Q2 reports throwing some gasoline on the fire in the last two weeks. We shall see.
Starting to chip away at some Baytex at these prices. The long close on the Ranger deal added at least a dollar to the downside IMO. They will be buying stock in the market in about two weeks so that should sop up a lot of downside pressure. RBC continues to like the stock- the inference I get is that the PE firm that owned Ranger didn't allow a lot of basic well optimization because they wanted headline growth numbers for a sale. So tons of low hanging fruit.
lots of comments on refrac opportunities too. Sure don't hear much about that in Canada. Before
IPCO bought the field a couple of refracs looked great in the Ferguson field near Milk River. Quiet since then. Nobody mentions that in the Pembina at all.