Big Banc Split Corp T.BNK

Seeking Alpha

[braincloud]

An article was posted on Seeking Alpha about BNK. The story makes a big deal over Shell's buyout of Petromanus' leases. He thinks that Shell would eventually take BNK out and puts a valuation of just shy of $1 billion or roughly $5. He thinks that what Albania needs is a big player that can't get pushed around by the ALB government. It also demonstrates that there confidence in the oil reserves and further development. The article has a few things wrong but that said, it's bullish. The guy is long the stock.

[Shqipe]

To get that type of premium I think we should be trading around the 2.50-3.00 range.

[LordIskander]

Why nobody has ever paid triple? Shell ain't replacing over 20% of its production at all. It sunk in $7 billion in a dry hole at the Chukchi sea in Alaska and didnt bat an eye. These guys are desperate for reserves. They get 200MM 2P at Shpirag and with the 200MM 2P of Bankers i think they move the needle in the right direction.

[LordIskander]

The current level of the share price is not an indication of value. The indication of value is what Shell paid for PMI's stake. If Shell values the prospect oil field at $180M in the current market, which has only 1B barrels of OIIP. Bankers' Patos-Marinza oil field, with 5B barrels of OIIP, could fetch $900M, without accounting for the fact that the oil field is more developed than the

[jutah70]

Part of the problem is the stock is mispriced.  If you look at the book value of the stock it is around the $3.50 - $3.80 range.  Oil is down hurting the share price, and the recent spat with the Albanian goverment has taken it down even further. The problem for Shell for instance is they can't make an offer even 40% above the current share price because when you do the math on the

[braincloud]

Jutah, the whole energy market is mis priced. Oil is going to be zero, haven't you heard! She'll threw out some pocket change. No conspiracy pal. Hungary is a couple of years away. It's ALL about the oil price and sentiment. That's it, that's all. A rising tide floats ALL ships

[flintabattey]

I seem to recall posting something along these lines a few weeks back, why was it "poop" then but "plausible" now....... Anyway, in the unlikely (but not impossible-out-the-realm-of-all-hope) chance it did occur, the offer will not be scalable up from smaller deals, instead look to larger deals and work back, after a little dd IMHO the price would be $2.67. There, have at her.

[braincloud]

guys, I'm sorry I even brought It up. In times like these take overs don't happen from the bottom of the heap upward. I'm not saying that BNK is dirt, but it just doesn't have the broad appeal. There are just a handful of companies that should, could or might be interested. Now isn't the time. The oil price needs to settle down a bit. We haven't seen a modicum of